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Roger Montgomery

Sweet spot helping bull market rampage

The strong market has challenged value investors who want to buy at lower prices, but there are signs 2020 will continue a 'sweet spot' of profit growth, low inflation and central bank liquidity support. 

A simple method to help mitigate sequencing risks

A shock to a portfolio at the wrong time can compromise a retirement plan where cash must be withdrawn each year. There are funds which attempt to trade some of the upside to reduce the downside.

Bulls, bonds and brain damage

Markets are overlooking the obvious risks as traders pass the parcel to the next buyer. Even central bankers believe: “There is something vaguely troubling when the unthinkable becomes routine.”

Insane prices as private equity quits market

Let's face it. Prices for many listed and unlisted companies have reached insane levels. Many of Australia's most reputable and successful fund managers are bewildered by the current market, and something's got to give.

It's unlikely Uber has a long-term future

Uber is the largest loss-making startup in history, and while investors will climb aboard the IPO and return money to early investors, the stockmarket will eventually realise there is no identifiable path to Uber profitability.

Welcome to the Great Australian Deleveraging

The biggest concern that many analysts ignore is that, after house prices begin falling, the savings ratio climbs, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence, leading to a rapid slowdown in the economy.

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Investment strategies

The thin line between investing and gambling

Prediction markets are blurring the line between investing and speculation and savvy investors can profit from this trend by heeding the advice of famed investor, Benjamin Graham.

Strategy

The refinery problem: A different kind of energy crisis in 2026

The Strait of Hormuz closure due to US-Iran conflict severely disrupted global energy supply chains. While various emergency measures mitigated the crude impact, the refined product market faces unprecedented stress.

Gold

Are we running out of gold?

Geopolitical instability and challenges with new gold discoveries mean we may be approaching a structural shortage of mineable gold, but what does this mean for gold's overall long-term availability?

Investment strategies

ETF investors adding to portfolios during recent volatility

In the face of recent market volatility investors continue to add to their ETF portfolios with these ETFs getting notable inflows, indicating that long-term fundamentals remain solid.

Strategy

Policy setting in democracies

Democracies aren’t a given, and policymakers need to be mindful not to alienate communities and instead be more aligned with mainstream ideas and attitudes. 

Investment strategies

Take my money and lie to me… again

As private funds increasingly show signs of cracking and buckling under a complete lack of liquidity, the salespeople do their best to keep the cash pouring in from new investors. 

Economy

Australia was once a world leader in innovation, now the system is ‘broken’

Ambitious Australia joins a long line of reports examining research and development, finding Australia has fallen behind its peers on many fronts. It urges bold reform to address declining productivity and research spending.

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