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Roger Montgomery

Four fruitful themes show plenty of juice in the market

There are many reasons why 2021 has the potential to be a great year for equities. What are the themes and opportunities most likely to deliver, and how much is inflation a threat?

Why it's a frothy market but not a bubble

There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.

Buffett and his warning about 'virtually certain' earnings

  While many investors are happy to invest in any online companies, Warren Buffett focusses more on the quality of future growth, buying companies whose earnings are 'virtually certain' in 10 or 20 years from now.

The future is always clearest once it is in the past

It's one of those times when a case can be made that the market is expensive on some measures, but reasonable on others. Better to do what the great companies do: instead of guessing the future, they create it.

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

What will stop the market returning to its highs?

Despite signs of optimism, market valuations are stretched and recovery is fuelled by government support. Some companies are doing well but stimulus cannot continue to prop up consumers for too long.

Latest Updates

Retirement

2 billion reasons to fix retirement income

A proposal to address Australia's 'stranded balances' in retirement by requiring super funds to transition members to pension phase at 65, boosting retirement income and reframing super as a source of income.

Investment strategies

Not much alpha left in this bet

Google redefined advertising with its innovative business model, but its dominance is now under siege from AI competitors and shifting market dynamics.

Five simple reasons why Australian cash rates are highest

Australians are suffering the highest cash rates amongst their rich country peers for five simple reasons, including outdated inflation targeting and undisciplined monetary and fiscal policies.

Investment strategies

Spending big on AI: So where’s the proof it’s working?

Business leaders must reassess AI's return on investment using new frameworks that reflect productivity, capability shifts and long-term value creation.

Economy

Double down on renewables?

Global volatility has sharpened Australia's focus on energy security. Calls for domestic fuel production clash with renewable energy goals, sparking a debate on balancing traditional and sustainable energy sources effectively.

Investment strategies

Private Credit headwinds move onshore

It’s been a volatile couple of months in markets with the ongoing conflict in Iran. For Australian private credit investors, however, large exposures to real estate lending could mean the worst is yet to come.

Property

Five reasons unlisted commercial property is an attractive allocation in uncertain times

Cromwell takes a look at replacement cost as a practical lens on relative value in commercial property. When build-new costs rise faster than asset pricing, the gap can create opportunities in well-located existing assets.

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