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Home / Author: Roger Montgomery

Roger Montgomery

Welcome to the Great Australian Deleveraging

The biggest concern that many analysts ignore is that, after house prices begin falling, the savings ratio climbs, reflecting a lack of consumer confidence, leading to a rapid slowdown in the economy.

Watch for one rule that applies to all assets

Most investors think the relationship between interest rates and prices only applies to fixed rate bonds, but the rate impact on discounting future cash flows applies to all income-producing assets.

TV - the end of the world as we know it?

All aspects of media and broadcasting are changing, and in television, there are so many new ways to reach viewers that traditional players may be in an unavoidable death spiral.

Are there profits from the 5G revolution?

The coming of 5G will herald a communication and internet revolution, but the benefits to consumers and society will not automatically translate to huge profits for providers and suppliers. Who will win?

Call that disruption? Investors are forgetting

Many new 'disruptive' businesses are simply older-style businesses dressed up, and even if it's an attractive and ultimately profitable new space, competitors will join the party.

Corporate toads kissing, but no princes here

Fairfax and Nine together will not magically produce a great company. The business models of newspapers and free-to-air TV are compromised by giants in digital and media industries, and viewing habits have changed.

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Retirement

How inflation is quietly moving the goalposts on retirement

Inflation doesn’t just raise today’s bills - it quietly increases the amount needed to retire, while simultaneously making it harder to save. Three steps to take before June 30th to improve retirement outcomes.

Investment strategies

Three strategies for investing amid AI whiplash

AI fears have shifted from bubble talk to disruption anxiety, driving investors toward asset-heavy, 'AI-resistant' businesses while punishing many software and service firms. This environment may be ripe for stock pickers.

Investment strategies

Are private market assets the answer in an unstable world?

Private markets can offer diversification and return potential, but their opacity, scale and wide dispersion of outcomes make manager selection and due diligence critical for non‑institutional investors.

Property

Mispriced in plain sight: The case for Global REITs

Global REITs have fallen out of favour, trading at deep discounts after years of underperformance, despite resilient earnings and improving fundamentals.

Investment strategies

Survival is the only success

True financial success isn’t about how much you make, but whether you can sustain it — survival is the only win that matters.

Investment strategies

$42 billion too late

Why Australia's biggest energy bet may already be redundant while a less celebrated government program is exceeding expectations. 

Investment strategies

Do investors accept lower returns from assets that make them feel good?

Assets that deliver emotional satisfaction tend to offer lower financial returns, as investors accept an “emotional yield” in place of performance which shapes how investors approach ESG and unpopular assets.

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