Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2022: Striking a better balance

Although the COVID-19 pandemic will remain a critical factor in 2022, the outlook for macroeconomic policy will likely be more crucial. Our outlook for the global economy will be shaped by how the support and stimulus enacted to combat the pandemic are withdrawn. The removal of policy support poses a new challenge for policymakers and a source of risk for financial markets.

While the economic recovery is expected to continue through 2022, the easy gains in growth from rebounding activity are behind us in most parts of the world. We expect growth in both the U.S. and the euro area to slow down to 4% in 2022. In China, we expect growth to fall to about 5%, and in the U.K. we expect growth to be about 5.5%. By contrast, in Australia, we expect stronger growth in 2022 of around 4.5% following lackluster growth in 2021, as lockdowns ease on the back of positive vaccination progress.

Inflation has remained high across most economies, driven both by higher demand as pandemic restrictions were lifted and by lower supply resulting from global labor and input shortages. Although a return to 1970s-style stagflation is not in the cards, we expect inflation to remain elevated across developed markets as the forces of demand and supply take some time to stabilize.

Central banks will have to maintain the delicate balance between keeping inflation expectations anchored and allowing for a supportive environment for economic growth. As negative supply shocks push inflation higher, they threaten to set off a self-fulfilling cycle of ever higher inflation, which could begin to chip away at demand. Ultimately, we anticipate that the Federal Reserve will raise rates to at least 2.5% by the end of this cycle to keep wage pressures under control and to keep inflation expectations stable. Meanwhile, the RBA is likely to gradually taper off its quantitative easing program early next year, though it will likely lag the Fed in its timing of the lift-off given relatively less subdued wage pressures.

As we look toward 2022 and beyond, our long-term outlook for assets is guarded, particularly for equities amid a backdrop of low bond yields, reduced support, and stretched valuations. Within fixed income, low interest rates guide our outlook for low returns; however, with rates moving higher since 2020, we see the potential for correspondingly higher returns.

Download the full paper here

 


 

Leave a Comment:

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

4 ways to take advantage of the market turmoil

Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.

Shares

Why the ASX needs dual-class shares

The ASX is exploring the introduction of dual class share structures for listed companies. Opposition is building to the plan but the ASX should ignore the naysayers and bring Australia into line with its global peers.

The state of women's wealth in Australia

New research shows the average Australian woman has $428,000 in net wealth, 40% less than the average man. This takes a deep dive into what the gender wealth gap looks like across different life stages.

Investing

The two most dangerous words in investing

Market extremes are where the biggest investment risks and opportunities lie. While events like this are usually only obvious in hindsight, learning to watch out for these two words can alert you to them in real time.

Shares

Investing in the backbone of the digital age

Semiconductors are used to make microchips and are essential to a vast range of technology and devices. This looks at what’s driving demand for chips, how the industry is evolving, and favoured stocks to play the theme.

Gold

Why gold’s record highs in 2025 differ from prior peaks

Gold prices hit new recent highs, driven by a stronger euro, tariff concerns, and steady ETF buying – all while the precious metal’s fundamental backdrop remains solid amid a shifting global economic landscape.

Now might be the best time to switch out of bank hybrids

In this interview, Schroders' Helen Mason discusses investing in corporate and financial credit securities, market impacts of tariffs, opportunities for cash investments, and views on tier two and hybrid bonds.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.