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21 January 2025
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The best investors have a similar trait to the best gamblers: they bet when the odds are overwhelmingly in their favour. Investors such as Bill Gross, Edward Thorp, and Charlie Munger used a probabilistic mindset to beat markets.
Capital growth may disappoint over the next decade, making dividends critical to investor returns. The best stocks will be those that pay consistent, high dividends and are inexpensive.
Australian retail investors appear pessimistic about the market outlook with cash allocations at record highs. Those buying prefer materials and energy stocks, while fallen angels such as Magellan are out of favour.
Markets are pricing in rate cuts, but they will be disappointed as rates plateau at a higher level through 2023. That means that investors will have a way to generate returns - using bonds - without being forced into higher risk assets.
We’re in a rare moment in history where the term premium has been negative for a number of years. History suggests that won't last, and here are the best ways to position your portfolio to benefit from the change.
The active versus passive debate rests on the lazy assumption that it's not possible to consistently choose managers that outperform. Both the premise and (hence) the narrative are flawed.
The biggest structural stories in healthcare will involve cell and gene therapies, and genomics. Companies that supply those developing vaccines and other therapies are where the best investment opportunities lie.
Like in the 1970s, today's investors face challenges of inflation, cold war, and fraying global trade ties - but unlike then, there's now high debt and environmental problems. Here's how to best navigate the difficult backdrop.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.