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Edition: 490

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 490 with weekend update

  • 5 January 2023
  • 10

The best investors have a similar trait to the best gamblers: they bet when the odds are overwhelmingly in their favour. Investors such as Bill Gross, Edward Thorp, and Charlie Munger used a probabilistic mindset to beat markets.

Doubling down on dividends

Capital growth may disappoint over the next decade, making dividends critical to investor returns. The best stocks will be those that pay consistent, high dividends and are inexpensive.

Retail investors aren't buying the dip

Australian retail investors appear pessimistic about the market outlook with cash allocations at record highs. Those buying prefer materials and energy stocks, while fallen angels such as Magellan are out of favour. 

Why investment grade credit looks attractive

Markets are pricing in rate cuts, but they will be disappointed as rates plateau at a higher level through 2023. That means that investors will have a way to generate returns - using bonds - without being forced into higher risk assets.

What to do about our distorted relationship with money

We’re in a rare moment in history where the term premium has been negative for a number of years.  History suggests that won't last, and here are the best ways to position your portfolio to benefit from the change.

Active or passive – it’s time to change the narrative

The active versus passive debate rests on the lazy assumption that it's not possible to consistently choose managers that outperform. Both the premise and (hence) the narrative are flawed.

Compelling investment opportunities in healthcare

The biggest structural stories in healthcare will involve cell and gene therapies, and genomics. Companies that supply those developing vaccines and other therapies are where the best investment opportunities lie.

The 1970s offer a helpful framework for today's markets

Like in the 1970s, today's investors face challenges of inflation, cold war, and fraying global trade ties - but unlike then, there's now high debt and environmental problems. Here's how to best navigate the difficult backdrop.

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

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