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1 April 2025

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Edition: 498

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 498 with weekend update

  • 2 March 2023
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Jim Chalmers wanted a 'conversation' about the objective of super before finalising any regulation changes, but Anthony Albanese felt too much political pain from claims of a broken promise. They moved the effective date beyond the next election, with a new 30% tier, but the tax on unrealised gains is the big surprise. How will it work?

How the new super tax will hit large balances

The Government rushed a decision to increase tax on super balances above $3 million. Although the effective date is after the next election, the big surprise is including unrealised capital gains in earnings.

Labor's ‘stability and certainty’ sings from Morrison's hymn sheet

Six years on, the Labor Government used exactly the same words that Treasurer Scott Morrison said in 2016. Before changes in super rules, we are promised "stability and certainty", but the top 1% is too tempting.

February reporting season is the calm before the storm

After investors become more realistic in terms of earnings over the next three months and earnings are rebased, the outlook for the share market is expected to be positive heading into the second half of this year.

Australia's migration reopening boom

The recovery in net migration will be much stronger than government forecasts, with +400,000 expected for last year and +350,000 for 2023. This will increase total consumer spending but also expand the labour force.

Buying resource and consumer staple stocks

Australian shares are likely to outperform in 2023 helped by stronger economic growth and increased demand from China supporting commodity prices. Certain sectors could be set to sizzle while others may be left behind.

The coming supercycle in tangible assets

Investors need to adjust to a market regime change of fiscal stimulus and a boom in intangible asset investment. The resulting volatility in nominal GDP is likely to lead to a decline in equity market multiples.

Why stock prices are a distraction

Stock prices are like email: distraction machines. With email, it distracts people from getting work done efficiently, while with stock prices, they distract investors from what really matters: the businesses underlying them.

Drawing more than you need to fund your super pension

Retirees with large super balances may be forced to draw more than they need. It's a good problem to have, but what do they do with the excess? Here are some ideas for you to consider.

Will gold continue to shine in 2023?

Despite the attention on Bitcoin, gold outperformed almost every asset class in AUD terms in 2022. Gold traditionally performs inversely to the US dollar, which may have topped out after a multi-year bull run.

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UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

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2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

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Is Gen X ready for retirement?

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Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

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