2024 ...
... will turn out differently than you expect. We finished 2023 on a high with rising equity markets and falling long-term interest rates, and it's tempting to extrapolate from here. While forecasts are often needed as part of investing, experts predict quickly and then bury their miscalculations. There will be surprises soon and 2024 will not be an exception. Investing and life are like that.
The Australian Financial Review has surveyed 40 economists and found that only nine expect cash rates to rise to 4.6% on 6 February 2024, while the median forecast sees a first fall in September. Not surprisingly, that's about where I sit, as I think the Reserve Bank has done enough with cash rates due to Australia's far higher level of floating rate borrowing.
The call for Governor Michele Bullock is whether she feels she needs to show the market a firmer hand, but another rise will inflict mortgage pain on thousands of younger people while older investors enjoy the increasing cash flow. It's been a rapid turn from the days of earning nothing on cash.
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Here’s a bit of fun to start the new year. Who said these famous quotations (answers at the end)?
- “Pundits forecast not because they know but because they are asked.”
- “My two rules of investing: Rule one – never lose money. Rule two – never forget rule one.”
- "The four most dangerous words in investing are: 'This time it's different.'"
- “Go for a business any idiot can run because sooner or later, any idiot probably is going to run it.”
- “If you owe the bank $100, that’s your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that’s the bank’s problem.”
- “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
- "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing."
- "I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful."
- “October. This is one of the particularly dangerous months to invest in stocks. Other dangerous months are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June December, August and February.”
- "The stockmarket has reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.”
- “Money is better than poverty if only for financial reasons.”
- “Conventional wisdom teaches that it is better to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.”
- “The markets generally are unpredictable, so that one has to have different scenarios. The idea that you can actually predict what’s going to happen contradicts my way of looking at the market.”
- "In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable.”
- “For I don’t care too much for money, for money can’t buy me love.”
- “Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense to those who know what they are doing.”
- “I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to look after itself.”
- “You must not only learn to live with tension, you must seek it out. You must learn to thrive on stress.”
- “You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table. There’ll be time enough for countin’, when the dealin’s done.”
- “In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value.”
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I have received overwhelming support and encouragement since I announced my diagnosis for a brain tumour in November 2023. Here is a brief update.
On 29 December 2023, two days before the end of the year, I completed six weeks of radiation and chemotherapy treatment. Now there is a break for a month to allow my body and brain to recover, although the next two weeks are usually worse during the adjustment. Then at the end of January, back onto a week of chemo followed by three weeks off, for another six months, depending on results. And perhaps another short, sharp radiation if needed.
It's been a tough slog at times and I try not to be boring talking about it. Some days have been fine, others lacking energy with my mind vague. Completing 30 radiation sessions became a daily chore, which many others have endured.
The weird experience is the need to eat before wanting any food, as the drugs and radiation make such demands on the body. Waiting until I get an appetite is too late, and the nurses and doctors insist I eat almost anything to maintain my weight and energy. My wife, Debbie, has been wonderful, taking me to hospital every day for radiation sessions. I'm not allowed to drive due to potential for epilepsy after brain surgery.
The radiation oncologist treating me is Professor Michael Back, the best in the business at targeting radiation doses to the brain. It is now public knowledge that Back is also treating Professor Richard Scolyer, who recently featured on Australian Story on ABC TV (and is the current NSW Australian of the Year) due to new techniques to manage his own brain tumour. I feel great confidence in the people looking after me.
Michael Back reviewed my images every day as scans were done with every radiation treatment, and we met him once a week. He told us he was worried I would not make it due to brain swelling, weight loss and energy variance at one stage, but now he is pleased with progress and is more optimistic. Every person reacts differently as medication doses are varied to stay on top of the disease, and hopefully this has stabilised.
So it's 2024, but at one stage, I wondered if I would get this far. I'm mostly feeling fine although often tired. I'm ready for the next stage and hopeful the reduction in radiation and chemo treatment will make me feel better over coming weeks. Even my new cancer-fighting beard is coming along well.
Thanks to everyone for their support and have a great 2024. Apologies if I have not replied to messages as on some days, I'm on another planet. We'll see where this planet takes me.
Cheers, Graham
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And here are the answers:
- John Kenneth Galbraith
- Warren Buffett
- Sir John Templeton
- Peter Lynch
- J. Paul Getty
- John Maynard Keynes
- Phillip Fisher
- Warren Buffett
- Mark Twain
- Irving Fisher
- Woody Allen
- John Maynard Keynes
- George Soros
- Robert Arnott
- The Beatles
- Warren Buffet
- Ronald Reagan
- J. Paul Getty
- Kenny Rogers
- Alan Greenspan