Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 318

Vital lessons from the long-term Index Chart

Information overload is a modern day problem.

Between smartphones, websites and watches that alert you even when you have ignored the phone, it is hard, if not impossible, to tune out the noise of the world. Trade wars, Brexit, currency slumps and geopolitical tensions are just the headlines that can dominate the news cycle on any given day. Thankfully the Australian cricket team provided some welcome relief – and restored a little national pride – at Edgbaston this week.

A long-term look at markets

Vanguard has been publishing its annual index chart that plots the performance of all the major markets and asset class indices for Australian investors for 18 years. It allows investors to look at how markets have rewarded them for the risk taken through periods of market rises and periodic slumps.

This year’s chart provides the data to 30 June 2019, and naturally there is always a tendency to focus on what has topped the performance table. While interesting, that is not the key message from the chart.

The core message – and the reason for continuing to publish it over such an extended period of time – is to understand the power of markets over the long-term.

Think of a major event that roiled investment markets and look at that point on the chart, say, the last Australian recession in 1992 or the collapse of Lehman Bros in 2008 to understand its impact at the time. Then zoom out to see how it affected returns over the full 30-year time period covered by the chart.

The other message provided by the index chart is when investors lean towards wanting to predict what will be the top performing asset class next year … and the year after that.

You can view the digital version of the chart here (or order a print copy here) but if you are tempted to try and time markets, it’s worth taking a look at the table below from the index chart brochure which shows the total returns across all the major asset classes featured in the chart.

No discernible performance pattern

The best and worst performing asset classes are highlighted across each year, and feel free to let us know if you spot a performance pattern because what we see is what Burton Malkiel captured so elegantly in his investment classic, A Random Walk Down Wall Street.

The index chart shows the performance of markets over the long term, but for individual investors its value is in understanding how you blend all of those markets to create a portfolio with the right asset allocation to achieve your investment goals within a risk level that you are comfortable with.

For investors, a sense of perspective is a critical tool in the armory that can help tune out short-term noise, focus on your long-term goals and, as the legendary founder of Vanguard, Jack Bogle said, help you to “stay the course”.

 

Robin Bowerman is Principal and Head of Corporate Affairs at Vanguard Australia, a sponsor of Cuffelinks. This article is for general information and does not consider the circumstances of any individual.

For more articles and papers from Vanguard Investments Australia, please click here.

 

3 Comments
Trevor
August 08, 2019

If the house is your residence then you need to factor in the value of living in it rent free and the tax free status of the capital appreciation.

Work out how much rent you would have paid (out of after tax income) over the years and add that to the capital appreciation of the property and it starts looking like a pretty good investment.

Also non financial benefits such as not having to deal with a landlord or being forced to move need to be factored in.

For what its worth I think negative gearing property investments is overrated.

Kevin
August 08, 2019

Depends what you mean by property Steve,it doesn’ t mean a house.World REITS excluding Australia,all dividends reinvested.

To get an idea take an investing life of 40 years,you started early.The accumulation index gives a value of 70K now approx.Take an average house in 1980 in my state and it was roughly $40K.

That 40K put into shares would now be $2.8 million.Of course the management fees would also be a lot over those decades and greatly reduce that return.

The house is around $400K now,the holding,insurance and repairs and maintenance costs of a property are huge.The rent cannot be reinvested.

Take out the reinvesting of dividends and the index would need to be multiplied by 80.So 80 x 6500 would be 520K.Not taking out costs etc.

Just my 2 cents worth,I don’ t understand why people think investing in houses is wonderful.
Investing in REITS by all means,but they are volatile.

Steve
August 07, 2019

The most useful part of this wonderful chart is the long term average return at the bottom. Property is the long term winner (barring US shares which have been through a ridiculous bull market)

 

Leave a Comment:

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

Latest Updates

Investing

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

Investment strategies

A closer look at defensive assets for turbulent times

After the recent market slump, it's a good time to brush up on the defensive asset classes – what they are, why hold them, and how they can both deliver on your goals and increase the reliability of your desired outcomes.

Financial planning

Are lifetime income streams the answer or just the easy way out?

Lately, there's been a push by Government for lifetime income streams as a solution to retirement income challenges. We run the numbers on these products to see whether they deliver on what they promise.

Shares

Is it time to buy the Big Four banks?

The stellar run of the major ASX banks last year left many investors scratching their heads. After a recent share price pullback, has value emerged in these banks, or is it best to steer clear of them?

Investment strategies

The useful role that subordinated debt can play in your portfolio

If you’re struggling to replace the hybrid exposure in your portfolio, you’re not alone. Subordinated debt is an option, and here is a guide on what it is and how it can fit into your investment mix.

Shares

Europe is back and small caps there offer significant opportunities

Trump’s moves on tariffs, defence, and Ukraine, have awoken European Governments after a decade of lethargy. European small cap manager, Alantra Asset Management, says it could herald a new era for the continent.

Shares

Lessons from the rise and fall of founder-led companies

Founder-led companies often attract investors due to leaders' personal stakes and long-term vision. But founder presence alone does not guarantee success, and the challenge is to identify which ones will succeed in the long term.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.