Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 295

The S-curve beats the macro every time

Talk to most investment professionals about their investing style, and they will speak about macroeconomics, interest rates and sector valuations as their primary drivers of decision making. But will this really create investment performance and returns? We believe the macro picture is not the secret to success.

Rather, it is the ability to benefit from structural changes that underpin the earnings growth of companies. It is these companies that will deliver the strongest returns over the long term, regardless of the economic backdrop or point in the cycle.

Market evolution and the few companies that do really well

The key is to recognise what the stock market really is. It is a market of companies, and it is continually changing and evolving. For instance, oil and gas used to be the biggest sectors in the S&P 500 index but today it is technology. General Electric Company (GE) was once the biggest company in the world, but it is now at risk of falling out of the S&P 500, while Amazon – which did not exist 25 years ago – has taken its place, with a market cap of over $800 billion.

It is only a handful of companies that truly create and deliver wealth for investors over the long term. A study in the Journal of Financial Economics by Hendrick Bessembinder (Do Stocks Outperform Treasury Bills, updated 2018) looked at every company that has listed in the US over the past 90 years, and what happened if an investor bought and held every stock.

He found that most companies out of 14,000 in total destroyed value versus Treasury bills, with the vast majority going to zero. A further 8,000 companies made enough to offset what the other 14,000 had lost. And 1,100 companies or only 5% of the total delivered all the return in the US market (above Treasury bills). Of these 1,100, there were actually 50 companies that made up 40% of the entire wealth created in the US stockmarket over that 90-year period.

The trick for investors, therefore, is to identify these 50 companies early on, and buy and hold them.

Sounds simple? Of course, it isn’t.

The S-curve helps identify the wealth creators

This is where the idea of the S-curve comes in. In business terms, the S-curve tracks how a company or industry grows over its lifecycle. There comes a point in the lifecycle when growth inflects, driven by a structural change. It is the tailwind created by the structural change that allows a company to deliver and create wealth.

We argue that the S-curve always beats the macro when it comes to investing.

Companies like Facebook, Amazon and Apple have ridden the wave of demand for technology products and services that did not exist 15 or 20 years ago, but which are now considered indispensable in our daily lives. As investors, we seek to identify the next round of structural changes, and then invest in the companies that will benefit from them, at the start of the S-curve and not at the end.

Apple is a good example here. From 2008 to 2017, while the growth in the overall mobile handset market was relatively flat, smartphone penetration went from less than 10% to roughly 70% over the same period. In 2008, there were 10 mobile phone stocks to choose from but only two really worked out – Apple and Samsung. Once household names like Blackberry, Motorola, Eriksson and Nokia failed to seize the structural growth opportunity in smartphones.

Source: Bloomberg. Click to enlarge.

The smartphone market has now stopped growing and Apple is relying on price hikes and its services revenue for growth. The smartphone industry is now at the end of its S-curve.

Video Streaming and Netflix, on the other hand, is still growing. Yes, Netflix’s earnings multiples are high, and it is not yet making material profits, but what’s important is how much earnings it makes 10 years from now, not what it makes in 2019 or 2020. And on this basis, Netflix is poised for immense growth. It is currently in just 10% of broadband homes around the world, and its monthly pricing is low relative to the value of content it offers, so its potential for earnings growth is huge. Video Streaming is still toward the beginning of its S-curve.

Successful company characteristics

Once we identify industries at the beginning of their S-curve, we then need to find the companies that can fully benefit from the structural change. To do this, we consider five company characteristics that we believe are essential for success:

  • Potential for growth: exhibit faster earnings, EBITDA or revenue growth versus peers and growing Total Addressable Market (TAM).
  • Economic leverage: exhibit pricing power or economic leverage to improve margins.
  • Sustainability: exhibit ability to sustain growth due to scale, position, intellectual property or locational advantages.
  • Control: exhibit strong management ownership and incentives.
  • Customer perception: Exhibit strong customer reviews and rapid adoption.

Companies that display all these characteristics are best placed to capitalise on their structural tailwind. Examples we would highlight today would be Amazon in eCommerce, Danaher in Innovative Health and ServiceNow in Digital Enterprise.

 

Nick Griffin is a Founding Partner and Chief Investment Officer of Munro Partners. This article is for information purposes only and does not consider the circumstances of any investor.

 

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

4 ways to take advantage of the market turmoil

Every crisis throws up opportunities. Here are ideas to capitalise on this one, including ‘overbalancing’ your portfolio in stocks, buying heavily discounted LICs, and cherry picking bombed out sectors like oil and gas.

Shares

Why the ASX needs dual-class shares

The ASX is exploring the introduction of dual class share structures for listed companies. Opposition is building to the plan but the ASX should ignore the naysayers and bring Australia into line with its global peers.

The state of women's wealth in Australia

New research shows the average Australian woman has $428,000 in net wealth, 40% less than the average man. This takes a deep dive into what the gender wealth gap looks like across different life stages.

Investing

The two most dangerous words in investing

Market extremes are where the biggest investment risks and opportunities lie. While events like this are usually only obvious in hindsight, learning to watch out for these two words can alert you to them in real time.

Shares

Investing in the backbone of the digital age

Semiconductors are used to make microchips and are essential to a vast range of technology and devices. This looks at what’s driving demand for chips, how the industry is evolving, and favoured stocks to play the theme.

Gold

Why gold’s record highs in 2025 differ from prior peaks

Gold prices hit new recent highs, driven by a stronger euro, tariff concerns, and steady ETF buying – all while the precious metal’s fundamental backdrop remains solid amid a shifting global economic landscape.

Now might be the best time to switch out of bank hybrids

In this interview, Schroders' Helen Mason discusses investing in corporate and financial credit securities, market impacts of tariffs, opportunities for cash investments, and views on tier two and hybrid bonds.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.