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15 January 2025
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Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.
It is well known that equities are subject to both booms and busts, testing the discipline of most investors. New research proposes a framework for assessing the likelihood of large equity market drawdowns.
The Government hailed the Early Access Scheme as a great success, but Australians should not have withdrawn super to meet their obligations. Economic stimulus and a secure social safety net should provide for them.
Nobody has a clue what is going to happen with the market. When deciding what to do with your stocks today, what matters is where the business and its intrinsic value may be 10 years down the line.
Sticking to a value-driven investment strategy is difficult in a market fuelled by hope and buoyant expectations. At what point should investors forego the equity market rally to prepare for a possible correction?
Allocation Switch is an asset allocation strategy that follows the profits instead of following the market, which arguably helps limit downside in the event of a market crash.
Investors celebrated when the Dow broke through the 20,000 mark last month, but in real terms, it's a more sobering picture. Australian stocks in particular are struggling to reach their previous heights.
With cash investments providing such poor returns, the search for yield has driven up share and property prices, some to unrealistic levels. It has also corrupted our sense of risk which is a dangerous combination.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.