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22 January 2025
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Equity indices have evolved over time, led by step-changes in our ability to manipulate data. Despite the rise of passive investing, they weren't initially meant to be investment tools.
What is the catalyst for smalls caps to start outperforming their larger counterparts? Cheap relative valuation is bullish though it isn't a catalyst, so what else could drive a long-awaited turnaround?
Many investors are looking to emerging markets due to stretched valuations in developed markets, but there are particular reasons why choosing a passive ETF in emerging markets may not be optimal.
Inefficiencies in the small caps index means outperformance is common but that should not cost 60% more in fees than large caps. Large caps have outperformed small caps over the long term but with significant variability.
Investors celebrated when the Dow broke through the 20,000 mark last month, but in real terms, it's a more sobering picture. Australian stocks in particular are struggling to reach their previous heights.
Since the 1900s, share market returns for US and Australian investors have been similar over the long run, but lately, US shares have outperformed with the current tech boom. How about +66% versus -2% since 2007.
Index and asset allocation specialists, Research Affiliates, have tested a theory they call the ‘Rip van Winkle’ approach. It uses a cap-weighted index portfolio drawing the data from 20 years earlier to prove a point.
The SPIVA Australia Scorecard measures the performance of actively-managed funds compared with the relevant S&P indexes. Results from the most recent Scorecard are not pretty for active managers.
If you are not happy to own the entire business for a decade, you should not be comfortable owners of even one share for just a few minutes. Time is the friend of the extraordinary business but the enemy of the poor business.
* Changes in ASX100 show how long term trends benefit or harm companies. Publishers Fairfax and PMP out, online REA and Trade Me in.
* Institutions (including superannuation funds and offshore investors) own 90.1% of the issued capital of Australia’s top 300 companies.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.