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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 606 with weekend update

  • 10 April 2025
  • 6

The boss of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, UniSuper’s John Pearce, says Trump has declared an economic war and he’ll be reducing his US stock exposure over time. Should you follow suit?

Time to announce the X-factor for 2023

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2023? It's time to select the winner.

Where to from here after this year’s big tech rally?

The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks in the US have had an incredible run and many investors are wondering how long it can last. While it may be tempting to take profits in these stocks, it could prove a costly error.

Reports of tech's death are greatly exaggerated

Many investors have written off the tech sector after last year's bloodbath. But tech is entering a new phase of growth and dominance, fuelled by innovation and AI, and there are compelling ways to play this theme.

Is software the new shale?

The software bubble appears to have popped but not everyone is convinced. There are many lessons from the US shale boom that are broadly applicable to the recent software boom, and it doesn't bode well for tech companies.

Collateral damage follows the end of profitless prosperity

It was a joy ride while it lasted but the free money era could not last. The consequences of the misallocation of capital into poor companies is now playing out and shareholders face billions of dollars in losses.

Is the speculative fever in 'hot stocks’ over?

A check on price chart action for dozens of favourite tech stocks shows how dramatic the rises and falls have been. Where to from here? There's better value but profits need to remain strong or prices will fall.

Why AI is today’s most important investment theme

Three companies rank as amazing 'hyperscalers' which will revolutionise industries as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning change the way business is done. They deserve a place in most portfolios.

10 trends reshaping the future of emerging markets

Demand for air travel, China’s growing middle-class population, Brazil’s digital payments take-up, Indian IPOs, and increased urbanisation are just some of the trends being seen in emerging economies.

How real are the three key regulatory risks facing Big Tech?

Drawing on experience as a bank analyst who studied the legislative process during the GFC, an internet analyst now has a unique insight into three key risks faced by Big Tech and implications for share prices.

Is your portfolio too heavy on technology stocks?

Investors with heavy allocations to a broad US index should check how much is exposed to tech stocks, especially when valuations look a bit steep. It might be time to reallocate to other sectors or styles.

Why tech companies trade at a premium

When Australian companies are marked against their role in tech disruption, stock market returns are higher for companies with higher tech disruption scores. They also benefit when valued using low interest rates.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

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