Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 212

Decide if 'fake crises' are worth the worry

'Fake news' has been dominating the media since the Trump Presidential win. Financial markets have a parallel concept we will call 'fake crises'.

A fake crisis is a major sell-off of one or more asset classes brought on by widely-held expectations of an impending disaster, but one that fails to eventuate or has been massively exaggerated.

Unnecessary losses from a fake crisis

A fake crisis can inflict heavy losses on an investor who dumps quality assets at depressed prices during the panic but provides the opportunity for an investor to acquire good assets cheaply.

An outstanding example of a fake crisis in investment markets – the cause célèbre – occurred in the early weeks of 2016. The dominant view then was China’s economy was 'contracting' and would soon cause a global recession. Commodity prices, share markets and the Australian dollar plunged.

As things turned out, retail sales continued at almost double-digit growth, industrial production expanded strongly, and China boosted demand on a scale the doomsayers had not allowed for. Shares, commodities, confidence and the Australian dollar all rebounded.

Other fake crises in investment markets during recent years

Many examples of fake crises have unnecessarily worried investors, including:

  • The initial (but very brief) collapse in share prices following Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election.
  • The loss in market sentiment following the Brexit vote in June 2016.
  • The 'taper tantrum' in 2013, when bond markets sold off aggressively on the expectation the Fed would mismanage the phasing out of its huge programme of bond purchases.
  • The 'sovereign debt crises' in Europe in 2012 and 2013, which were exaggerated and were followed by record low bond yields.
  • The widely held fears in the second half of 2011 that the US economy was sliding back into recession.

Fake crises generally follow the same pattern. Investors always have a lot of things to watch and to worry about. From time to time, concerns develop, sometimes without justification. A momentum builds up. Many investors come to uncritically accept data or comments that support the majority view while ignoring the countervailing facts. Maybe some hedge funds will 'short' assets or asset classes, expecting to buy them back during the crunch at lower prices. Research reports may be released full of gloom and doom to support the portfolio positions the hedge funds have taken up.

Managing reactions to a fake crisis

The best way I know of working out whether a crisis will create prolonged pain or be short-lived is for the investor (perhaps through his or her adviser) to create two lists on the outlook for the relevant market or markets. One list would show the worries. The other list would set out the positive or counter-balancing influences. The investor can then take an on-balance view appropriate to their risk tolerance.

This approach can be applied to any or all investment markets. Let us try it on the current outlook for the Chinese economy.

List of China negatives and positives

Negatives:

  • The huge build-up in indebtedness by Chinese governments (at the national and regional levels) and by property developers.
  • The potential for bad debts of banks to blow out.
  • The excess capacity in heavy industry.
  • The risk of a surge in capital outflow causing a run on the Renminbi.
  • The slow pace of reform among state-owned enterprises.

Positives:

  • China has a high level of saving.
  • The increased debts are mostly owed domestically and not to lenders abroad.
  • International reserves still stand at US$3 trillion.
  • For many years there will be a high level of building construction for the urbanisation program.
  • To date, the move to a more market-determined exchange rate mechanism is working well.

Buy, sell, do nothing?

A reasonable on-balance assessment is that the pace of expansion in the Chinese economy will slow a little, both cyclically and in trend terms, in the next couple of years. The risks of recession are low but there will be recurring big swings in investors’ confidence in China’s economic conditions and prospects.

China’s growth has moderated from a rate of 14% in 2007 to 7% in 2016. But in absolute terms, the year-by-year expansion in the Chinese economy has remained impressively large, and that is what matters for both global growth and the Australian economy.

Fake crises can materially impact investor returns if it leads to panic selling, so a calmer and more systematic approach is called for to avoid overreacting to the noise.

 

Don Stammer has been investing for over 50 years, including long periods with Deutsche Bank and ING. He writes a fortnightly column on investments for The Australian and has advisory roles with Altius Asset Management and Stanford Brown Financial Advisers.

RELATED ARTICLES

Lessons from a century of virus plagues

How likely are market crashes?

A world out of sync with inflation

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Latest Updates

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

Economy

Australia's economic report card heading into the polls

Our economy grew by a nominal rate of 7% per annum from 2017 to 2024, but it benefited from the largesse of fiscal and monetary policies, both of which are now fading. We need a new, credible economic growth agenda.

Preference votes matter

If the recent polls are anything to go by, we are headed for a hung parliament at the upcoming federal election. So more than ever, Australians need to give serious consideration to their preference votes.

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Tips for the last member standing

It’s common for people as they age to seek more help in running their SMSF if their capacity declines. An alternate director may be a great solution for someone just planning for short-term help in the meantime.

Wilson Asset Management on markets and its new income fund

In this interview, Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management discusses his outloook for the ASX, sectors such as REITs that he likes, and his firm's launch of a new income-oriented listed investment company.  

Planning

‘Life expectancy’ – and why I don’t like the expression

Life expectancy isn't just a number - it's a concept that changes with survival rates over time. This article breaks down how age, survival, and societal factors shape our understanding of life expectancy, especially post-Covid. 

The shine is back on gold, and gold miners

Gold mining stocks outperformed in 2024 and are expected to do well in 2025. At this point in the rally, it's worth considering what has driven gold prices higher and why miners could still have some catching up to do.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.