James Gruber is still on the mend so I’m afraid you’re stuck with me again. Before we get to today’s articles, I thought I’d talk about a couple of tricks I see used to sell financial products.
There’s a saying in marketing and sales that nobody likes being sold, but everybody loves to buy.
Take giving to charity for example. I think most people feel pretty good while writing a cheque to a cause that means a lot to them, or to something a friend is raising money for. I know I do. At the same time, I doubt I am alone in bracing for impact whenever a charity canvasser steps merrily towards me.
People hate being sold to. So, how do marketers and salespeople get around this?
First of all, they will try to focus more on the destination or desired state of being than the product itself.
People love buying because it feels like taking a step towards the future self they want to be. They don’t sell you the car, they sell you the family days at the beach. They think about where you are and where you want to go. Then they sell you the road there.
They will also use mind tricks.
These little tactics are based on behavioural science. Their aim is to bump you towards the action the persuader wants you to take. In many cases, you will end up using these tricks on yourself. After all, the most convincing salesperson is the one in our own head.
Robert Cialdini outlined 7 key methods of persuasion in his classic book Influence. Today I’m going to focus on two that I see often in finance – scarcity and authority.
Scarcity is when the promoter tries to stoke a fear of missing out. A promoter will do this by ascribing some kind of limit to the opportunity being offered. Either in regards to how many of it are left (only 13 spaces left at this price!) or by putting a deadline on it (sale ends at midnight!). By doing this, they are hoping to inspire that FOMO and encourage action.
My investment platform in the UK has been telling me to lock in high yields before interest rates fall for about a year now. They are using scarcity. Or you might see a fund manager touting a “once in a generation” opportunity for X style of stocks – usually the type they invest in. By saying it is once in a generation, they are implying the opportunity will close and you could miss out.
The most obvious form of authority is some kind of track record. These vary greatly in the quality of information being conveyed. But because humans are subconsciously drawn to authority, lower value indicators of this nature can still be very compelling.
I would say that a 20-year performance record across various economic cycles is genuinely valuable information. Meanwhile, promotions based on shorter track records, hypothetical returns based on back-testing, or some guru’s predictions in the past are far lower quality signals.
You might see an idea being touted using a headline like “stock manager who picked Nvidia at $8 announces new tech position” or “analyst who predicted the Great Recession sees new crash coming”.
The past prediction, which could have been one of thousands of other calls made by the same person, is being used to boost the credibility of the next prediction. Even though the next event being predicted is completely independent from the previous one. It isn’t that far away from the gambler’s fallacy – and for good reason. People selling hot tips know their audience.
Another form of “authority” you’ll see is the assertion that big institutions or the ultra-wealthy are investing in a certain way, so everyday investors should too. I am seeing a lot of this now when it comes to private and alternatives assets. Just remember that while the facts being presented might be true, they are probably carefully chosen weapons of persuasion.
These facts are often presented without crucial context. Like what other assets the wealthy person holds alongside the asset in question or what they are really trying to accomplish by holding it.
In this edition of Firstlinks...
Investors have crammed into increasingly narrow areas of the stock market with increasingly high valuations. Martin Conlon from Schroders thinks investors are threading the eye of a needle. In this article, Conlon reveals why he doesn’t share the market’s enthusiasm for CBA. He also discusses the Guzman y Gomez IPO, pathology stocks and other cases where investors appear to be overhyping or overlooking the stocks in question.
While few debate the fact that Earth is experiencing climate change, the economic impact of these changes is far less certain. Joachim Klement highlights new research modeling how different regions and their economies will be affected. The results diverge greatly between countries and could have a profound impact on everything from migration flows to ESG investing themes.
Claiming personal super contributions as a tax deduction can be a handy way to reduce your tax bill. However, misunderstanding the eligibility rules can prevent you from receiving the deduction you were hoping for. You could even miss out altogether. Julie Steed outlines the criteria you must meet to successfully claim a tax deduction and discusses common pitfalls like partial withdrawals.
Healthcare and education are just two areas that stand to benefit from advances in artificial intelligence. Dr Kevin Hebner from Epoch Investment Partners warns governments against regulating away the gains that AI can bring to society. While this investment theme looks set to dominate for at least a decade, there is only room for a small number of winners in each segment of the industry.
The excitement of retiring can be stunted by the fear of running out of money and the difficulty of shifting your mentality from saving to withdrawing. Both situations result in uncertainty and, in many cases, a less comfortable retirement than you can actually afford. Justine Marquet from Allianz Retire+ highlights the value of certainty in retirement and how you can go about increasing yours.
In my article this week, I ask whether outdated accounting methods have made ratios like price-to-earnings less valuable than they once were. If you’ve been wondering why low P/E, low price to book methods haven’t been so hot recently, this could explain why.
Our featured white paper is Magellan’s recent letter to Global Equities clients. The letter discusses several big themes set to impact markets going forward. These include the state of the global consumer, China’s place in the world and why you should always be wary of naysayers.
Two extra articles from Morningstar this weekend. I ask whether private credit's big promises stack up and Johannes Faul discusses Domino's Pizza after its share price slump.
Joseph Taylor
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