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21 November 2024
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Morningstar’s asset class 'gameboard' for 2015 is an excellent visual summary of how each asset class has performed over the last 20 years, and shows that no single asset class consistently outperforms the others. It also gives no hint into how the previous year's winners or losers will perform in the following year as the pattern appears random.
Click on the gameboard for an enlarged version. In case the fine print is a little too fine, here are the underlying data sources:
My own method of portfolio construction for clients with a lump sum is to start with 100% spread in Australian Fixed Interest (40%) and cash (60%) and then move into a mix of the rest using 10% each year (spread over mainly Oz and Int'l shares - most Australians have enough property) for three years, until we reach 30% "invested" position. Then I allow my client to choose whether they go further invested to risk over the next 2-4 years, using 5% to 10% each year. That allows dollar cost averaging; it allows the client to learn as they go; it allows NO LOSSES of the corpus over the first few years and after that it will be unlikely to ever slip below the starting point and it allows sufficient income to be generated for the client settle into retirement with no nasty surprises. If you look at the chart you'll see why my method works and is very popular, because returns are/have been pretty stable over any period, using this method. We NEVER encourage ANYONE to go more than 50% into risk (i.e. non cash and short-dated fixed interest) if they are near retirement. If they do so, it's on their own head. We also NEVER recommend margin lending, despite upgrading our AFSL so that we can. We figure that if we weren't able to advise on Margin Lending we wouldn't be able to (credibly) advise AGAINST it. The logic is that if you need to borrow to invest you can't afford to and if you don't you'd use your own property as collateral for any loan for investment purposes... All simple, practical (un)common sense. Peter Thornhill's argument holds some water but is unhelpful for someone beginning with a substantial lump sum. It's too bound up in the common equity-driven thinking that may have been best over the past few decades but which could prove a little less successful over the next two decades as the Baby Boomers sell down their inflated assets...
It's important to look beyond the short-term volatility caused by military events, inflation, rate hikes, and other daily dramas. Here's how simple, diversified, long term portfolios continue to deliver healthy returns.
Over decades, relatively few companies generate all the stockmarket's outperformance. Is this an argument for passive investing or does it prove active investing is rewarded? Bessembinder lets you decide.
A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.
It’s with heavy hearts that we announce Firstlinks’ co-founder and former Managing Editor, Graham Hand, has died aged 66. Graham was a legendary figure in the finance industry and here are three tributes to him.
There are well over 800,000 family trusts in Australia, controlling more than $3 trillion of assets. Here's a guide on whether a family trust may have a place in your individual investment strategy.
Investing guru Howard Marks says he had two epiphanies while visiting Australia recently: the two major asset classes aren’t what you think they are, and one key decision matters above all else when building portfolios.
Berkshire Hathaway’s third quarter earnings update reveals Buffett is selling stocks and building record cash reserves. Here’s a look at his track record in calling market tops and whether you should follow his lead and dial down risk.
How have so many wealthy families through history managed to squander their fortunes? This looks at the lessons from these families and offers several solutions to making and keeping money over the long-term.
A recent ruling from The Australian Financial Complaints Authority may herald a new era for financial scams. For the first time, a bank is being forced to reimburse a customer for the amount they were scammed.
The Big Four banks have had an extraordinary run and it’s left income investors with a conundrum: to stick with them even though they now offer relatively low dividend yields and limited growth prospects or to look elsewhere.
A triple headwind has seen Australia's biggest LIC swing to a 10% discount and scuppered its relative performance. Management was bullish in an interview with Firstlinks, but is the discount ever likely to close?
Most Australians don’t realise they are being charged up to six different types of fees on their superannuation. These fees can be opaque and hard to compare across different funds and investment options.
Economic growth in Australia looks to have bottomed, which means it makes sense to selectively add to cyclical exposures on the ASX in addition to key thematics like decarbonisation and technological change.
Understanding the property cycle can be a useful tool to make informed decisions and stay focused on long-term goals. This looks at where we are in the commercial property cycle and the potential opportunities for investors.
The concept of an 'equity risk premium' has driven asset allocation decisions for decades. A revamped study suggests it was a relatively short-lived phenomenon rather than the mainstay many thought.