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22 January 2025
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We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
The long current positive run for the Australian stock market is unusual but not a warning of imminent demise. Previous long positive runs were not all followed by corrections but this one may end this month.
A comprehensive study of the impact of inflation on returns from different assets over the past 120 years. The high returns in recent years are due to low inflation and falling rates but this ‘sweet spot’ is ending.
The Australian market overall finished flat for calendar 2020, but the pandemic delivered big wins and losses. The companies, sectors and companies you invested in delivered vastly different results.
China takes 40% of our exports and BHP, RIO and Fortescue generate 41% of Australian listed company profits. Trade tensions are hitting more companies and they need to diversify their revenue sources.
The global tech run paused in September but the boom is driven by rising prices rather than actual profits. It will end when global confidence in the prospect of endless monetary and fiscal stimulus runs out.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.
Negative gearing allows investors to deduct rental property expenses, including interest, from taxable income, but its tax concession status is debatable. The real issue lies in the favorable tax treatment of capital gains.
Trump's election has turbocharged US equities, but can that outperformance continue? Expensive valuations, rising bond yields, and a potential narrowing of EPS growth versus the rest of the world, are risks.
Untangling assets after a broken relationship can be daunting. But approaching the situation fully informed, in good health and with open communication can make the process more manageable and less costly.
Unlike their peers in the US and UK, policy makers in Australia haven't faced a bond market rebellion in recent times. This could change if current levels of issuance at the state and territory level continue.
Retirement village contracts often require significant upfront payments, with residents losing control over their money. While they may offer a '100% share in capital gain', it's important to look at the numbers before committing.