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12 January 2026
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While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.
Averages provide the central value in a data series but provide no window into variation. Every market drawdown, financial crisis and recession is different, and market cycles only end when excesses are corrected.
The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and it's an apt metaphor for investment choices. In 2021, as investors hunted in the bush for decent returns, demand overwhelmed supply. Cash is the bird in the hand.
Treasury has released draft legislation for a new version of the controversial $3 million super tax. It's a significant improvement on the original proposal but there are some stings in the tail.
The predictions include dividends will outstrip growth as a source of Australian equity returns, US market performance will be underwhelming, while US government bonds will beat gold.
We're about to add another million people to cities like Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne. How many hospitals and other essential infrastructure are needed to cater to a million more people? This breaks down the numbers.
The US dollar’s long-standing role as a ‘shock absorber’ during times of market stress is showing cracks. The ‘Liberation Day’ sell-off was a timely reminder of this, and here's what investors should do about it.
My mother developed dementia before eventually dying in June last year. She was in three aged care homes before finding the right one. Here is what I learned along the way.
China has flooded the world with electric cars and solar panels to offset the economic drag from a weak domestic property market. How long can this go on, and what are the implications for commodities and Australia?
Tesla copped criticism after its shareholders approved a package allowing Musk to earn up to $1 trillion in stock options. If only Australian businesses were more like Tesla.