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27 November 2025
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While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely hurt company margins and therefore stock prices. Uncompetitive companies facing elevated capital costs will be most at risk.
Portfolio construction requires actions, not just words, based on expected returns, volatility and correlations. We have not seen sufficient pain to believe we are at the bottom of the equity cycle.
Averages provide the central value in a data series but provide no window into variation. Every market drawdown, financial crisis and recession is different, and market cycles only end when excesses are corrected.
The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and it's an apt metaphor for investment choices. In 2021, as investors hunted in the bush for decent returns, demand overwhelmed supply. Cash is the bird in the hand.
Thank you for the hundreds of responses to our Reader Survey and to maximise the sample size, we’re leaving it open until this Sunday. Here is an overview of the results so far.
It might not be quite an ‘everything bubble’ but there’s froth in many assets, not just US stocks, right now. It might be time to stress test your portfolio and consider assets that could offer you shelter if trouble is coming.
Investors often fall prey to ‘amygdala hijacks,’ letting emotion trump reason. By focusing on dividend-growth with stocks instead of volatile prices, you can steady your mindset and let compounding do the work.
CBA’s recent pullback highlights single-stock risk. Global banks trade at lower P/Es with rising earnings and dividends, offering investors both income potential and long-term value beyond the local market.
Global dividend growth surged in the third quarter, with median growth of almost 6%. Australia was a notable exception as dividends fell, thanks to flagging mining company payouts.
In 2020, I warned that surging US money supply growth would spark inflation. By early 2023, I said US money supply was dropping dramatically and that meant inflation would decline. Here's what happens next.
The irony is profound: a system designed to secure Australians’ futures may be systematically dismantling the economic diversity necessary for long-term prosperity.
You devote years of your life working, saving and investing, striving to build a legacy that will outlive you. Before any wealth moves to the next generation, here are six questions every parent should ask themselves.