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1 February 2025
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DeepSeek has surprised investors, but it shouldn't: it's part of a normal capital cycle. Big tech companies have made a lot of money, which attracts capital and competition, and eventually hurts returns and incumbent share prices.
Less government involvement in the economy and markets is long overdue. But investors need to consider what a reduced government role may mean for the profitability of businesses that are unable to offset rising cost pressures.
The world is entering a higher cost environment which will hit the profits of companies in many sectors. A key beneficiary will be commodities, where supply shortages are meeting increasing demand from AI and green energy.
As the world shifts away from one of artificially suppressed interest rates and cheap manufacturing, investors will need to carefully consider how companies are positioned to navigate the new higher-cost paradigm.
While capitalism has its downsides, no system allocates resources better, and the result is a complex, adaptive economy. But indexation has amplified the disconnect between valuations and fundamentals, with worrying implications.
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.
After a stellar run for banks, investors are wondering whether they can continue their outperformance or if a rotation into miners is imminent. There’s a good case that a switch is coming, and it may last decades, not just years.
If Australia is to control its own destiny in an AI-enabled future, it must build its own infrastructure, not rent it from overseas. Creating homemade AI is the first critical step in the long process of building Australia's AI economy.
The TV streaming business has become increasingly competitive, yet Netflix has managed to grow market share and become the dominant player. Here's how it's done that, and the opportunities it has moving forwards.
Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.
A big market sell-off can force pensioners to 'sell cheap' in order to meet their miniumum withdrawal requirements. Investing in less volatile assets that also deliver regular income could provide an alternative.