Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Register

21 December 2024

Home / White Papers 2022

China’s “Common Prosperity”: What Does it Mean for Investors?

by Kevin Hebner, PhD Managing Director, Global Portfolio Management and William W. Priest, CFA Executive Chairman, Co-Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager

• “Common Prosperity” features two critical initiatives: The first aims to tame the country’s real estate obsession and speculative excesses, which have been the key drivers of soaring inequality. Even though a financial crisis is unlikely, a successful deleveraging and rebalancing necessarily implies lower overall growth lies ahead.

• The second is a regulatory clampdown on a wide range of tech sectors, ostensibly to foster competition, share excess profits with employees, and protect national security. This involves discouraging some areas of tech (e.g., online tutoring, gaming and social media), while encouraging others (e.g., semiconductors, AI, biotech and green tech).

• In 2024 the SEC will begin delisting Chinese companies that haven’t opened up their audits to U.S. oversight. Beijing has prohibited cooperation over fears that state secrets would be leaked. As a result, equity market decoupling is destined to accelerate over the next two years.

• Chinese equity indices have exhibited terrible performance over the past decade, but especially since the regulatory crackdown commenced. However, the market doesn’t appear cheap as Chinese equities have just declined in line with earnings, leaving relative multiples close to 10Y means.

• There are three compelling reasons to underweight Chinese equities: (1) The real estate sector faces an extended period of deleveraging; (2) The elevated level of regulatory uncertainty impacting tech isn’t going away anytime soon; and (3) “Common Prosperity” will limit the upside for successful tech companies. This is problematic for the increasingly digital economy, where a small number of firms account for a disproportionate share of market gains.

Download the full report


 

Leave a Comment:
Firstlinks is sponsored by:
banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

Vale Graham Hand

It’s with heavy hearts that we announce Firstlinks’ co-founder and former Managing Editor, Graham Hand, has died aged 66. Graham was a legendary figure in the finance industry and here are three tributes to him.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

Taxpayers betrayed by Future Fund debacle

The Future Fund's original purpose was to meet the unfunded liabilities of Commonwealth defined benefit schemes. These liabilities have ballooned to an estimated $290 billion and taxpayers continue to be treated like fools.

Australia’s shameful super gap

ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.

Looking beyond banks for dividend income

The Big Four banks have had an extraordinary run and it’s left income investors with a conundrum: to stick with them even though they now offer relatively low dividend yields and limited growth prospects or to look elsewhere.

Latest Updates

Investment strategies

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

Investment strategies

Time to announce the X-factor for 2024

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2024? It's time to select the winner.

Shares

Australian shares struggle as 2020s reach halfway point

It’s halfway through the 2020s decade and time to get a scorecheck on the Australian stock market. The picture isn't pretty as Aussie shares are having a below-average decade so far, though history shows that all is not lost.

Shares

Is FOMO overruling investment basics?

Four years ago, we introduced our 'bubbles' chart to show how the market had become concentrated in one type of stock and one view of the future. This looks at what, if anything, has changed, and what it means for investors.

Shares

Is Medibank Private a bargain?

Regulatory tensions have weighed on Medibank's share price though it's unlikely that the government will step in and prop up private hospitals. This creates an opportunity to invest in Australia’s largest health insurer.

Shares

Negative correlations, positive allocations

A nascent theme today is that the inverse correlation between bonds and stocks has returned as inflation and economic growth moderate. This broadens the potential for risk-adjusted returns in multi-asset portfolios.

Retirement

The secret to a good retirement

An Australian anthropologist studying Japanese seniors has come to a counter-intuitive conclusion to what makes for a great retirement: she suggests the seeds may be found in how we approach our working years.

Sponsors

Alliances

Site Map

About Firstlinks

© 2024 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.