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Edition: 354

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What are the options for a pandemic exit strategy?

The risk of easing restrictions early is still large but it could be managed progressively, while the risk of staying out longer will be crippling for the economy. Here's a summary of the options.

What do 11 stock market crises over 148 years tell us?

There have been 11 occasions in the 148 years between 1871 and 2019 when US stocks destroyed at least 25% of value for investors. What has been the best strategy to recover the losses?

A band-aid on a bullet wound

As hopes of a V-shaped recovery diminish, so will the revenues of many highly-geared companies. Client redemptions and downgrades will force selling at distressed prices beyond the Fed's capacity.

The vital 'rule of thumb' influencing the market

A key market heuristic during times of crisis is the second derivative. This is simply the rate of change or the acceleration or deceleration of whatever is causing the crisis.

Bear markets are good for portfolio makeovers, not only bargains

The tax cost of a ‘portfolio makeover’ from moving equities to a more efficient structure may now be minor compared with the benefits. The market fall is not just an opportunity to find bargains.

Are we again crying wolf on inflation risk in pandemic response?

Are analysts who repeatedly issue warnings that do not come true crying wolf about an imaginary risk of inflation? The problem is governments may become addicted to imprudent deficit spending. 

Take a total return focus during COVID-19

Rather than tying spending only to the income generated by a portfolio, a total-return approach encourages the use of capital returns when necessary to meet defined goals.

Is it fair that the wealthier get the most super benefits?

A reader asks about the inequitable distribution of the tax advantages of super, with most taxation benefits going to those with the highest incomes. We asked David Knox of Mercer to respond.

Magellan versus Platinum: which offers a less bumpy ride?

Magellan has attracted massive inflows in the last five years, while Platinum has struggled. The disparity in both track records can be explained by their varying investment approaches.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 354

  • 22 April 2020
  • 4

The impact of central bank activity on stock and bond markets is so pervasive that 'don't fight the Fed' has become a cliché. In fact, clichés are thriving in the coronavirus pandemic. We hear 'the cure is worse than the disease', events are 'unprecedented' and 'black swans', hotels and ships are 'Petri dishes', while 'we're all in this together' but it's 'the worst since the Great Depression' before we 'come out on the other side'. And yes, yes, yes, we know 'when the tide goes out, we can see who's been swimming naked'.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Vale Graham Hand

It’s with heavy hearts that we announce Firstlinks’ co-founder and former Managing Editor, Graham Hand, has died aged 66. Graham was a legendary figure in the finance industry and here are three tributes to him.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

Taxpayers betrayed by Future Fund debacle

The Future Fund's original purpose was to meet the unfunded liabilities of Commonwealth defined benefit schemes. These liabilities have ballooned to an estimated $290 billion and taxpayers continue to be treated like fools.

Australia’s shameful super gap

ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.

Looking beyond banks for dividend income

The Big Four banks have had an extraordinary run and it’s left income investors with a conundrum: to stick with them even though they now offer relatively low dividend yields and limited growth prospects or to look elsewhere.

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