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21 January 2025

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Edition: 354

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What are the options for a pandemic exit strategy?

The risk of easing restrictions early is still large but it could be managed progressively, while the risk of staying out longer will be crippling for the economy. Here's a summary of the options.

What do 11 stock market crises over 148 years tell us?

There have been 11 occasions in the 148 years between 1871 and 2019 when US stocks destroyed at least 25% of value for investors. What has been the best strategy to recover the losses?

A band-aid on a bullet wound

As hopes of a V-shaped recovery diminish, so will the revenues of many highly-geared companies. Client redemptions and downgrades will force selling at distressed prices beyond the Fed's capacity.

The vital 'rule of thumb' influencing the market

A key market heuristic during times of crisis is the second derivative. This is simply the rate of change or the acceleration or deceleration of whatever is causing the crisis.

Bear markets are good for portfolio makeovers, not only bargains

The tax cost of a ‘portfolio makeover’ from moving equities to a more efficient structure may now be minor compared with the benefits. The market fall is not just an opportunity to find bargains.

Are we again crying wolf on inflation risk in pandemic response?

Are analysts who repeatedly issue warnings that do not come true crying wolf about an imaginary risk of inflation? The problem is governments may become addicted to imprudent deficit spending. 

Take a total return focus during COVID-19

Rather than tying spending only to the income generated by a portfolio, a total-return approach encourages the use of capital returns when necessary to meet defined goals.

Is it fair that the wealthier get the most super benefits?

A reader asks about the inequitable distribution of the tax advantages of super, with most taxation benefits going to those with the highest incomes. We asked David Knox of Mercer to respond.

Magellan versus Platinum: which offers a less bumpy ride?

Magellan has attracted massive inflows in the last five years, while Platinum has struggled. The disparity in both track records can be explained by their varying investment approaches.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 354

  • 22 April 2020
  • 4

The impact of central bank activity on stock and bond markets is so pervasive that 'don't fight the Fed' has become a cliché. In fact, clichés are thriving in the coronavirus pandemic. We hear 'the cure is worse than the disease', events are 'unprecedented' and 'black swans', hotels and ships are 'Petri dishes', while 'we're all in this together' but it's 'the worst since the Great Depression' before we 'come out on the other side'. And yes, yes, yes, we know 'when the tide goes out, we can see who's been swimming naked'.

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Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

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9 lessons from 2024

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The 20 most popular articles of 2024

Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.

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