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Edition: 419

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 419 with weekend update

  • 5 August 2021
  • 3

It's tempting to assume our good investments are due to skill and poor investments are due to bad luck. Of course, it's not like that. Every investment decision is made with imperfect knowledge, and it is often luck whether the favourable elements outweigh the problems. What do Hamish Douglass, Warren Buffett, Annie Duke and Daniel Kahneman think?

Who dares loses: Buffett on luck, taxes and a challenge

Imagine it is 24 hours before you are born and you can set all the rules: any political system, any economic structure, any social edifice. One catch: you don't know which of the nine billion people on earth will be you.

Importance of remaining rational and why Bitcoin is worthless

The case for strong stock markets is convincing. The problem is that the case for a major correction (20% or more) in the next 12 months is also convincing. And why Bitcoin is absurd and defies logic in a market bubble.

10 big ideas for 2021 - a midyear update

Last November, the heads of four investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipated would guide investment decisions in 2021. With the year half over, we see how they’ve played out and check the outlook.

Four reasons many Australians will work until they're dead

Despite the maturing of the super system, 70% of retirees rely in part or full on the age pension. Access to pensions will become more restrictive and fewer people will have options such as a reverse mortgage.

Economic recovery and its impact on commercial real estate

Globally, demand for quality industrial property has driven the strongest period of growth the commercial logistics sector has experienced in many years, but what's happening with office and retail sectors?

'Wealth of Experience' podcast - markets rinse and repeat

The next episode of Wealth of Experience with Graham Hand and Peter Warnes covers Top 20 stocks then and now, Brambles, defining retirement income, performance fees and Nick Griffin’s ideas and outlook.

Reader Survey on retirement income

There has been an excellent response in reader engagement and comments to our recent articles and podcasts on retirement income. Tell us what you think in this short survey and the results will go to Treasury.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Uncomfortable truths: The real cost of living in retirement

How useful are the retirement savings and spending targets put out by various groups such as ASFA? Not very, and it's reducing the ability of ordinary retirees to fully understand their retirement income options.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

The public servants demanding $3m super tax exemption

The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.

20 US stocks to buy and hold forever

Recently, I compiled a list of ASX stocks that you could buy and hold forever. Here’s a follow-up list of US stocks that you could own indefinitely, including well-known names like Microsoft, as well as lesser-known gems.

The challenges of retirement aren’t just financial

Debates about retirement tend to focus on the financial aspects: income, tax, estates, wills, and the like. Less attention is paid to the psychological challenges of retirement, which can often be more demanding.

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