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Edition: 427

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 427 with weekend update

  • 30 September 2021
  • 5

All in one week. All on one subject. All buying into the same problem. Let's do a roll call of abbreviations and acronyms. IMF, OECD, CFR, RBA, APRA, ANZ, CBA. What are they all fussing about? Suddenly, they've realised rapidly-rising house prices might cause financial instability, generational inequity, mortgage stress and loan defaults. And did you know a housing inquiry is underway?

The sorry saga of housing affordability and ownership

It is hard to think of any area of widespread public concern where the same policies have been pursued for so long, in the face of such incontrovertible evidence that they have failed to achieve their objectives.

It's coming: 10 ways to cool rampant housing prices

Enough abbreviations and acronyms. IMF, OECD, RBA, APRA, CFR, CBA and ANZ are all calling for curbs on housing lending to head off financial instability and mortgage stress. Why will it take APRA months to issue a paper?

Antipodes’ Jacob Mitchell on his biggest investing lessons

Jacob Mitchell spent 14 years at Platinum before establishing Antipodes in 2015. He discusses trends he is following, his biggest lessons, LICs versus active ETFs and a stock he will hold for at least 10 years.

Move on from franking: Is tax-free retirement fair?

Superannuation funds receive franking credit refunds simply because their marginal tax rates are low, and no other reason. This point is often lost in the franking credit debate, but is low or tax-free super fair?

Never Evergrande: where to from here?

The Chinese Government has been tightening lending conditions for developers but has no motive to undermine the housing market. Evergrande's restructure will be messy but the Government will stabilise the market.

Why market forecasts matter to long-term investors

Investors should prepare for a decade of returns below historical averages for both stocks and bonds. Over the next decade, equity returns may be tiny compared with the lofty double-digit returns of recent years.

What do you expect from your portfolio today?

Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.

Latest 'Wealth of Experience' podcast

In this episode, Graham and Peter buy into the moves to control house prices, discuss the massive debate on age pension assets test, interview Antipodes' Jacob Mitchell, and observe buyers chasing long-term assets.

Three good comments from the pension asset test article

With articles on the pensions assets test read about 40,000 times, 3,500 survey responses and thousands of comments, there was a lot of great reader participation. A few comments added extra insights.

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

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