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Edition: 488

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 488 with weekend update

  • 15 December 2022
  • 1

In tennis, it's often the player who makes the least mistakes that wins. Applying this to markets, investors should seek to avoid making silly decisions rather than pursuing brilliance. Here are some practical ways to achieve this aim.

The distortions in our retirement system

The system has incentives that run counter to policy objectives, especially for the age pension taper rate, family home and access to super before it's assessed for the age pension. Here's how to fix these problems.

Wealth management reimagined

The financial advice sector is experiencing a form of market failure where demand for the type of advice now favoured by the industry is limited by the cost of supplying it. Here's how the industry can best move forward.

Time to announce the X-factor for 2022

What is the X-factor - the largely unexpected influence that wasn’t thought about when the year began but came from left field to have powerful effects on investment returns - for 2022? It's time to announce the winner.

What baked-in inflation means for portfolio construction

A difficult macroeconomic backdrop has reinforced the need to maintain a well-balanced portfolio in navigating one of the most unpredictable markets in history. We look at stocks that should prove resilient in choppy markets.

Will investors start tuning in to Spotify again?

Spotify shares have fallen around two-thirds from their peak in 2021. Here are four key reasons why Spotify can materially increase its earning power in future years, making the stock significantly undervalued at present.

How likely is a US recession? About 75%

The odds favour a US recession, albeit a mild one. If Australia can manage an orderly reduction of household debt, then it will give the RBA more flexibility to increase interest rates and bring them in line with US rates.

The legal fallout when a carer becomes a partner

Recently, the NSW Court of Appeal reversed an earlier ruling and declared a live-in carer was in fact a defacto partner. Significant financial consequences for the family could have been avoided with preventative action.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

The 20 most popular articles of 2024

Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.

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