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22 January 2025
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The Australian Government has asked the Productivity Commission to undertake an inquiry into the competitiveness and efficiency of Australia's superannuation system. The draft report was released on 29 May 2018.
These key points are taken from the Productivity Commission's website:
Any super fund that is guaranteed huge inflows of funds on a regular basis should always outperform a fund that has no such inflow, and of course has to allow for potential outflow. How easy to invest for the long term when you know that no matter what fresh money is coming in the door to handle liquidity issues! As for sponsoring football clubs etc how does this provide a retirement benefit for the member which I thought was the purpose of superannuation? We require SGC mandated funds other than the union funds to enable competition; perhaps even the Future Fund. Personally I would like to know more of the "alternatives" section of many mandated funds which are opaque to say the least and may look good in the current market but could cost some pain for future generations. Some weightings being as high as 30% of the fund.
"Unhealthy competition" - umm. I searched the go-to source of all human endeavour's knowledge (Wikipedia) and found no such term as it relates to economic activity. There were other references to "unhealthy competition" in regards to sociological outcomes (eg teams and workplaces), I will admit but no-one since Adam Smith until the Australian Government invented the term has anyone considered any economic competition as "unhealthy". Perhaps we can we bring back the Australian Wheat Board or TAA? I mean, really, how many airlines does one country need?
The idea of a "best in show" top 10 list of funds decided by an "expert" panel sounds absurd. If you put together a thousand different "expert" panels (expert in what exactly?), you'd likely end up with very close to a thousand different lists. I assume they'll essentially outsource to the research companies who already analyse and rate thousand of super funds. My many dealings with these agencies suggests they would take a very dim view of having the results of their work distilled down to a simplistic "top 10". The list would have to be constantly revised as performance, fees, market conditions constantly change. On top of that, what might be the "best" fund for someone might be totally inappropriate for someone else, depending on individual circumstances. I expect the panel will comprise the usual suspects: a few union bosses, a few company executives, some former politicians, Gonski and Peter Fitzsimons. I feel the chill winds of excessive government regulation blowing in. The irony is that ever-expanding regulation increases costs, complexity and bureaucracy, thereby often exacerbating, rather than solving problems (or else solving one, only to accidentally create another).
A positive of the PC report is the criticism of life-cycle products (“some foregoing higher returns by adjusting asset allocation as early as 30 years of age”). I have long been a critic of these products. They have the ability to “cost” members hundreds of thousands of dollars (but not hundreds and thousands). This insight by the PC will hopefully squash some aspects of the Cooper Review, whereby there was an inference that retirees should cash out from long-term investments to buy annuities. Whilst there is a need to protect against longevity risk there is, on the other hand, a benefit in maximising exposure to the best performing long-term assets. The PC report also said there should not be a MyRetirement default and hopefully this leads to healthy debate in this area.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.
The outlook for equities in 2025 has been dominated by one question: will the US market's supremacy continue? Whichever side of the debate you sit on, you should challenge yourself by considering the alternative.
Negative gearing allows investors to deduct rental property expenses, including interest, from taxable income, but its tax concession status is debatable. The real issue lies in the favorable tax treatment of capital gains.
Trump's election has turbocharged US equities, but can that outperformance continue? Expensive valuations, rising bond yields, and a potential narrowing of EPS growth versus the rest of the world, are risks.
Untangling assets after a broken relationship can be daunting. But approaching the situation fully informed, in good health and with open communication can make the process more manageable and less costly.
Unlike their peers in the US and UK, policy makers in Australia haven't faced a bond market rebellion in recent times. This could change if current levels of issuance at the state and territory level continue.
Retirement village contracts often require significant upfront payments, with residents losing control over their money. While they may offer a '100% share in capital gain', it's important to look at the numbers before committing.