Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 512

The pros and cons of short-term versus long-term investing

Investors have a strong desire to make money now, to have their investments pay off sooner rather than later.

There are certainly opportunities that can play out successfully over shorter periods, but a short-term strategy is not fool proof because it requires more ‘guess’ work about where multiples will be and how and when sentiment will change, if at all.

The alternative is for investors to be patient, take a long-term approach and focus on earnings, which are more durable and predictable than changes in valuation multiples. Investors may face down years and periods of lacklustre returns along the way, but they will likely be rewarded with a bigger payoff in the end.

Therefore, one of the most important decisions an investor faces is whether to pursue investments over a short or long investment horizon.

Both approaches have benefits and drawbacks and understanding the differences is critical to effectively managing an investment portfolio. Clearly discerning between strategies can help investors improve their research process to identify money-making opportunities while minimizing risk and successfully navigating inevitable bouts of market volatility.

So how do investors decide whether to invest for the short term or long term?

We believe there are five key considerations that investors should evaluate before choosing between investments with shorter (18-month horizon) and longer time horizons (7 years).

1. Source of opportunity (structural versus cyclical)

Long-term investment opportunities are typically underpinned by structural transformations that take place over many years or decades, such as the explosion of artificial intelligence and cloud computing, rising allocations to alternative assets, online shopping increasing, and payments shifting from cash to card.

These transformations can create massive markets with sustainably high growth rates, which the best companies capitalise on. For example, over the last eight years global card payments have more than doubled to over $US20 trillion. Over the same period Visa, the world’s largest card payment networks, has increased revenues 2.3 times and its stock price has risen four-fold.

On the other hand, short-term investment opportunities often arise from differences in market perceptions around economic cycles and near-term idiosyncratic events. Stocks of banks and retailers may sell off heavily in an economic downturn but can rebound quickly when the environment turns and profits jump.

For example, the share price of Foot Locker, an athletic apparel company in the US, halved during the COVID pandemic as reported profits fell by more than half in 2020. Then in the following year profits almost tripled and the stock price rose more than three-fold from trough to peak when the economy rebounded.

2. Driver of return (earnings versus multiples)

Over a longer-term horizon, investment returns are dominated by the change in earnings power, which tends to overwhelm the change in earnings multiple. That’s especially the case for the most successful businesses in structural growth industries.

However, over shorter investment horizons, the opposite is true, and the valuation multiple is a greater driver of investment returns than earnings growth.

To illustrate the point, we projected the earnings growth of three large well-known but different US companies: Bank of America, one of the largest banks in the US; Home Depot, the leading home improvement retailer in the US; and Microsoft, a global leader in cloud computing and AI.

Over an 18-month forecast period, the earnings growth is almost unnoticeable across the three companies, even though they operate in different industries with vastly different prospects. The projection period is just too short for these differences to show up in differentiated financial performance. This means the stock returns over this horizon will be fully determined by the change in trading multiples.

For an investor with a much longer 7-year horizon though, the calculus flips upside down.

Bank of America and Home Depot are forecast to moderately grow their profits … but Microsoft’s earnings are projected to nearly triple as cloud computing revenues expand driven by the rapid uptake of AI services. Even if Microsoft’s multiple halved and the others’ multiples remained unchanged, Microsoft stock would still handily outperform the others.

3. Potential for outsized gains (multi-baggers versus singles)

A natural corollary is that longer-term investments have the power to become proverbial ‘multi-baggers’ with total stock returns that are many times the initial investment outlay.

For example, if Microsoft’s trading multiple held its ground, earnings grew in line with our projections, and excess cash flows were paid out to shareholders in dividends, then Microsoft stock could be a ‘four-bagger’ over the 7-year horizon.

In fact, the potential for upside can be even greater when burgeoning companies go on to achieve ‘outlier’ levels of success over extended periods.

Spotify, the world’s most popular streaming service, could end up being a ‘ten-bagger’ over the next decade as its base expands past one billion listeners worldwide, more services are offered, advertising takes off, and profitability inflects from break-even today.

Unfortunately, the possibility of making multi-bagger gains is considerably diminished by investing over much shorter horizons, because earnings growth does not have time to change exponentially and changes in valuation multiples do not usually themselves multiply so quickly, if at all.

4. Degree of deviation (rougher versus smoother)

While a long-term investment horizon has the power to boost returns exponentially, the path can be highly unpredictable, and returns can deviate significantly – often wildly – from the performance of broadly diversified stock market indexes.

In a 2020 research paper, Professor Hendrik Bessembinder observed that the companies that created the most value over a decade-long horizon did not avoid dramatic share-price retracements along the way. On average, the 100 most successful stocks recorded a maximum price ‘draw down’ of 33% before going on to create trillions of dollars of shareholder value.

Conversely, investments made over a shorter horizon tend to deliver a smoother journey even if the destination is ultimately less fruitful. Shorter hold periods can lend themselves to less stock price variability, and the associated trimming of positions as they move against investors, or deviate from the market, dampens losses. Of course, trimming positions as they run to take profits can also hold back total returns.

5. Portfolio turnover (low versus high)

The distinctions between long-term and short-term investments reach beyond the nature of returns and risk, to meaningfully influence portfolio management and process.

Investments with longer-time horizons lower portfolio turnover rates, which means that investors have more time to spend researching the companies they will hold for years to come.

Deeper research offers investors the opportunity to discover novel insights about their holdings that can increase their conviction to see through difficult markets or, alternatively, to unearth risks that may be avoided by selling a stock early.

By contrast, shorter-term investments necessarily create higher turnover within a portfolio, which requires investors to find new ideas more frequently and leaves less time to acquire an intimate understanding of each investment.

Choosing a horizon

We believe that a long-term approach to investing will provide a more rewarding experience for investors by delivering superior compound returns, even though the journey will almost certainly be much more uneven and unpredictable.

However, that doesn’t mean that investors need to completely shun shorter-term money-making opportunities when they arise.

We reserve some space in Montaka’s portfolio for investments that may play out over short horizons. We just make sure they complement a large core of long-term compounders rather than replace them.

 

Chris Demasi is a Portfolio Manager at Montaka Global Investments, a sponsor of Firstlinks. This article is general information and is based on an understanding of current legislation.

For more articles and papers from Montaka, click here.

 

RELATED ARTICLES

5 charts that should give investors hope amidst market turmoil

Six ways to take a ‘private equity’ approach in listed markets

Why long term investing is not easy

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

Latest Updates

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

Economy

Australia's economic report card heading into the polls

Our economy grew by a nominal rate of 7% per annum from 2017 to 2024, but it benefited from the largesse of fiscal and monetary policies, both of which are now fading. We need a new, credible economic growth agenda.

Preference votes matter

If the recent polls are anything to go by, we are headed for a hung parliament at the upcoming federal election. So more than ever, Australians need to give serious consideration to their preference votes.

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Tips for the last member standing

It’s common for people as they age to seek more help in running their SMSF if their capacity declines. An alternate director may be a great solution for someone just planning for short-term help in the meantime.

Wilson Asset Management on markets and its new income fund

In this interview, Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management discusses his outloook for the ASX, sectors such as REITs that he likes, and his firm's launch of a new income-oriented listed investment company.  

Planning

‘Life expectancy’ – and why I don’t like the expression

Life expectancy isn't just a number - it's a concept that changes with survival rates over time. This article breaks down how age, survival, and societal factors shape our understanding of life expectancy, especially post-Covid. 

The shine is back on gold, and gold miners

Gold mining stocks outperformed in 2024 and are expected to do well in 2025. At this point in the rally, it's worth considering what has driven gold prices higher and why miners could still have some catching up to do.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.