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21 January 2025
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In this extract from his new book, the co-founder of Intelligent Investor reveals how investors can avoid critical mistakes and profit from opportunities in collapsing share prices.
Usually, credit crunches come before banking crises, but this time it might happen the other way around. Here are the likely paths forward, what things that investors should monitor and the best places to hide.
If you feel fear when the market loses its head, you become part of the herd. Develop habits to embrace the fear. Identify the cause, decide if you need to take action and own the result without looking back.
There is momentum to stop calling inflation 'transitory' but this overlooks deep-seated trends. A longer-term view will see companies like ARB, Reece, Macquarie Telecom and CSL more valuable in a decade.
The VIX as a measure of risk has a place in equity markets in interpreting market sentiment, but it is overly simplistic to think it can represent volatility in equities as a whole. Just what is it?
Equity markets are forward-looking, and the speed of the rebound has surprised many. If COVID-19 is controlled quickly, earnings could bounce back. Fund managers are picking up their favourites.
The current level of fear in the market could be signalling a downturn or even another GFC. Investors should remember the lessons from the last crisis, and be in a position to take advantage of the next one.
Investing with previous-year top performing fund managers and acting along with the crowd puts you on the wrong side of a zero-sum game. There may be a 'fear' premium for investing in out-of-favour styles.
An investor’s fundamental investment process should be adapted to take account of the psychology and emotion involved in making such decisions, including a disciplined approach to entering and exiting positions.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.