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Fundamental Value

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The million-dollar banana and the power of story

Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.

Is the market wrong on AI and China?

The conventional academic view is that markets are efficient as they price in all available information effectively. Yet history shows the market can be wildly wrong on stocks, as may be the case with AI and China today.

The companies well placed to weather an economic storm

With heightened uncertainty and the market near record highs, it's important to focus on companies that are largely insulated from unpredictable macroeconomic risks. CSL and Corporate Travel Management fit the bill.

Market narratives are seductive and dangerous

Human beings are storytelling animals yet it’s the job of investors to separate truth from fiction. And the truth lies in numbers, the company earnings and the multiples attached to those earnings.

Forget picking the bottom and focus on value

Rather than futile attempts to pick the bottom of the market, it's better to focus on improved valuations in quality companies and wait for the recovery in their businesses. But there are also problems to avoid.

If I get kicked out of the value investors’ club, so be it

When a value investor holds a large proportion of companies with good growth potential, does that mean a style has changed? With customer acquisition costs now expensed upfront, economic reality is understated.

Is the market’s recession conviction warranted?

Investors are convinced that Australia is going to have a recession, and that it’s going to be a humdinger. Several cyclical companies are trading at valuation levels reflecting the certainty of an uncertain recession.

How much will rising inflation hit company valuations?

It's complicated. Rising bond yields reflect optimism about economic growth and improving business conditions. But as the recovery matures, increases in bond rates prove counter-productive, kerbing economic growth.

Global search for short-term losers and long-term winners

Active managers need to know what factors are distorting asset prices. This interview with Ted Maloney, CIO of MFS, explores how much of 10 years of growth has been pulled forward and the impact of Reddit users.

High growth and low rates incompatible with current share prices

The unrealistic value creation through lowering discount rates while assuming high growth shows a sensible link is critical. Interest rate assumptions need as much valuation focus as the cash flows of the business.

Is Afterpay really worth $50?

How does an analyst value a stock which has traded between $8 and $50 in two months? Regardless, Afterpay has delivered Australia's youngest billionaire, and thousands have enjoyed the wild ride.

For sale: how to manipulate a company valuation

Promoters of new listings can over-hype a loss-making company to achieve a desired valuation, but the market is increasingly critical of expensive IPOs. There are many ways to value the future.  

Most viewed in recent weeks

Finding the best income-yielding assets

With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.

What history reveals about market corrections and crashes

The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today. 

Howard Marks: the investing game has changed

The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 605 with weekend update

Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now? 

  • 3 April 2025

Designing a life, with money to spare

Are you living your life by default or by design? It strikes me that many people are doing the former and living according to others’ expectations of them, leading to poor choices including with their finances.

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

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