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Fundamental Value

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The million-dollar banana and the power of story

Markets are not driven by numbers alone. Examples from Tesla shares to Sydney houses show that investors must evaluate not just tangible assets or financials, but also the intangible story that magnifies their value.

Is the market wrong on AI and China?

The conventional academic view is that markets are efficient as they price in all available information effectively. Yet history shows the market can be wildly wrong on stocks, as may be the case with AI and China today.

The companies well placed to weather an economic storm

With heightened uncertainty and the market near record highs, it's important to focus on companies that are largely insulated from unpredictable macroeconomic risks. CSL and Corporate Travel Management fit the bill.

Market narratives are seductive and dangerous

Human beings are storytelling animals yet it’s the job of investors to separate truth from fiction. And the truth lies in numbers, the company earnings and the multiples attached to those earnings.

Forget picking the bottom and focus on value

Rather than futile attempts to pick the bottom of the market, it's better to focus on improved valuations in quality companies and wait for the recovery in their businesses. But there are also problems to avoid.

If I get kicked out of the value investors’ club, so be it

When a value investor holds a large proportion of companies with good growth potential, does that mean a style has changed? With customer acquisition costs now expensed upfront, economic reality is understated.

Is the market’s recession conviction warranted?

Investors are convinced that Australia is going to have a recession, and that it’s going to be a humdinger. Several cyclical companies are trading at valuation levels reflecting the certainty of an uncertain recession.

How much will rising inflation hit company valuations?

It's complicated. Rising bond yields reflect optimism about economic growth and improving business conditions. But as the recovery matures, increases in bond rates prove counter-productive, kerbing economic growth.

Global search for short-term losers and long-term winners

Active managers need to know what factors are distorting asset prices. This interview with Ted Maloney, CIO of MFS, explores how much of 10 years of growth has been pulled forward and the impact of Reddit users.

High growth and low rates incompatible with current share prices

The unrealistic value creation through lowering discount rates while assuming high growth shows a sensible link is critical. Interest rate assumptions need as much valuation focus as the cash flows of the business.

Is Afterpay really worth $50?

How does an analyst value a stock which has traded between $8 and $50 in two months? Regardless, Afterpay has delivered Australia's youngest billionaire, and thousands have enjoyed the wild ride.

For sale: how to manipulate a company valuation

Promoters of new listings can over-hype a loss-making company to achieve a desired valuation, but the market is increasingly critical of expensive IPOs. There are many ways to value the future.  

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

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