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21 January 2025
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Most Australian investors have little exposure to emerging markets debt, but the attractions of a widely-diversified portfolio offering higher yields can be accessed through global bond portfolios available here.
High-yield bonds carry more risk than investment grade but they offer higher income returns. An allocation to high-yield bonds in a portfolio - alongside equities and other bonds – is worth considering.
Investors hold non-government bonds for both their income and defensive characteristics, but there must be sufficient diversification and liquidity in quality names to manage the risk.
As term deposits no longer satisfy the need for income, more investors are turning to alternative sources. Here's a check on where three types of fixed income sit in the company funding structure.
Bond markets are far larger than stockmarkets, and the BBB segments in the largest of all in the corporate market. Many analysts have pointed to potential weaknesses but it pays to look a bit deeper.
As interest rates fell in recent years, there was a push into emerging markets debt, but as worldwide central bank stimulus reduces, many of these 'emerging' countries are showing why they are poorly rated.
The high yield debt market is now much larger and riskier than just before the GFC. That doesn’t bode well for when the next downturn happens and investors have several options to de-risk.
Many retail investors have turned to unrated or high-yield corporate bonds in recent years, but conditions have been favourable. Watch for the once-a-decade spikes in default rates.
Due to the growing risks to high yield or junk bonds, this is not the time to accept their tight spreads in the search for better returns. Investment grade bonds and dividend yields are likely to be more dependable.
Investors seeking yield need to watch the margin contraction on so-called 'high yield' debt, especially since the protective covenants are weaker than in the past.
Keeping superannuation savings in term deposits will protect the capital but doesn't optimise the retirement outcome. There are many alternatives that should provide higher sustainable income over the long term.
It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.