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Are record market highs bullish or bearish?

Stocks have had a barnstorming run of late, breaking to new highs in many markets, as they anticipate imminent cuts to interest rates in the US. Can the run continue, and if so, what are the key signposts to look for?

Where to from here after this year’s big tech rally?

The 'Magnificent Seven' stocks in the US have had an incredible run and many investors are wondering how long it can last. While it may be tempting to take profits in these stocks, it could prove a costly error.

Why AI is today’s most important investment theme

Three companies rank as amazing 'hyperscalers' which will revolutionise industries as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning change the way business is done. They deserve a place in most portfolios.

Why valuation multiples fail in an exponential world

Estimating the value of a company based on a multiple of earnings is a common investment analysis technique, but it is often useless. Multiples do a poor job of valuing the best growth businesses, like Microsoft.

Why it's a frothy market but not a bubble

There are pockets of bubble pricing in some assets that can pop at any time, but overall, valuations are frothy but prices of most companies can be sustained if not hit by rising bond rates.

FANMAG: Because FAANGs are so yesterday

FANMAG returns have been strong but not relative to their predecessors. Looking at a broader group of large tech companies, most have lagged the market. Fad-based investing is no substitute for broad diversification.

Win some, lose some: Buffett's 2020 scorecard

Warren Buffett's investment portfolio gains attention because of his legendary status, but parts of his empire in insurance, railways, metalworking and aircraft suppliers have been damaged by the pandemic.

Is your portfolio too heavy on technology stocks?

Investors with heavy allocations to a broad US index should check how much is exposed to tech stocks, especially when valuations look a bit steep. It might be time to reallocate to other sectors or styles.

The connectivity revolution is only just beginning

The connectivity enabled by the ‘super platforms’ of Facebook, Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Tencent and Alibaba is creating the best investment opportunities as business catches on.

The 'Heady Hundred' case for unglamorous growth

Checking global stocks with higher prices than the FANGAM stocks but weaker margins and growth identified almost 100 companies. Astonishingly, the ‘Heady Hundred’ are valued at over US$3 trillion.

After 30 years of investing, I prefer to skip this party

Eventually, prices become so extreme they bear no relationship to reality, and a bubble forms. I believe we are there today, not for all stocks but for many in the technology space.

Six suspects in the murder of inflation

The market has been looking for inflation for most of the last decade. Low interest rates should increase consumption, borrowing and demand and result in higher prices. What killed inflation?

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2024/25 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ATO has released all the superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2024. Here's what’s changing and what’s not, and some key considerations and opportunities in the lead up to 30 June and beyond.

Five months on from cancer diagnosis

Life has radically shifted with my brain cancer, and I don’t know if it will ever be the same again. After decades of writing and a dozen years with Firstlinks, I still want to contribute, but exactly how and when I do that is unclear.

Is Australia ready for its population growth over the next decade?

Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise. 

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 552 with weekend update

Being rich is having a high-paying job and accumulating fancy houses and cars, while being wealthy is owning assets that provide passive income, as well as freedom and flexibility. Knowing the difference can reframe your life.

  • 21 March 2024

Why LICs may be close to bottoming

Investor disgust, consolidation, de-listings, price discounts, activist investors entering - it’s what typically happens at business cycle troughs, and it’s happening to LICs now. That may present a potential opportunity.

The public servants demanding $3m super tax exemption

The $3 million super tax will capture retired, and soon to retire, public servants and politicians who are members of defined benefit superannuation schemes. Lobbying efforts for exemptions to the tax are intensifying.

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