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21 January 2025
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Much of the economic commentary on the attack of the Ukraine has focused on oil. Peter Zeihan suggests that much of that discussion has failed to appreciate the pre-war decline of the Russian oil industry.
Among the myriad of numbers that bombard us every day, three prices matter greatly to the world economy. Recent changes in these prices help to understand the potential for a global recovery and interest rates.
At the moment, oil is the only energy source that can satisfy global demand, but low-carbon power is increasing supply and cost effectiveness. Will the oil price hold up while the fuel is gradually replaced?
Anyone considering investing in oil must understand it is a commodity with supply and demand features, and the relationship between spot and futures markets is critical to how an oil ETF is managed.
The oil market is as much about geopolitics as it is demand and supply, with regimes controlling much of the global production. Are negative oil prices part of a bigger plan by someone?
Long-term oil price projections and currency appreciation make the current valuations of many Australian companies look overly optimistic. Extra supply can be turned on quickly when prices start to rise.
US shale oil producers and the combined alliance of OPEC and Russia need one another to maintain the 'sweet spot' in oil sector dynamics and profitability into the future.
The so-called oil supply problem is the result of oil-producing countries deciding what to produce, but the market has relatively little spare capacity. There's a short-term power play underway by the lower-cost producers.
There's been much media attention on the negative aspects of oil price falls, but some of the benefits are doing more for the economy than the government stimulus package during the GFC.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.