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22 January 2025
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Harry Markowitz said that “diversification is the only free lunch in investing” as holding a broader range of assets can result in better returns without assuming more risk. This has become accepted wisdom - but it isn't true.
Recency bias often prevents investors from rationally evaluating the road ahead. We look at how to counter this common error and build a durable investment portfolio that will perform under most circumstances.
Investors have different start dates for calculating investment performance, so each investor's experience of any one manager can be completely different from the next. You can't always trust that beautiful chart of past performance.
We often assign quality in investment choice by historical returns, backed up when we see fund flows directed towards such historically well-performing funds. This is a mistake made by investors and regulators.
The YFYS annual performance test neither measures the return members achieve, nor adequately measures the risks a fund took in achieving the returns, yet it is likely to change the way funds behave.
Nobody has a clue what is going to happen with the market. When deciding what to do with your stocks today, what matters is where the business and its intrinsic value may be 10 years down the line.
Notwithstanding the wide variety of fund managers and fund structures vying for the investor dollar, some questions need to be asked of all of them. They help us determine the quality of the fund and the manager.
Every experienced investor develops a set of beliefs about how markets operate, and finds the proof points to defend those views. Managing the Third Link Growth Fund has taught Chris some unconventional lessons.
Road cycling has an enthusiastic following among the corporate set, particularly within the investment community. Investing and cycling have much in common, especially after sitting in the saddle for a few days.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.