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22 January 2025
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GDP was 0.3% for last quarter but the real story is this was Australia’s seventh consecutive quarter of negative GDP per capita growth. How does this economic drought compare to past ones, and what can we expect in future?
Immigration offers economic benefits, such as tax revenue, increased productivity, and reduced crime, but also challenges, including social cohesion. This looks at how Canada and Germany are balancing these complexities.
Across the globe, leaders are concerned about the fallout from declining birth rates and shrinking populations. Australia, though attractive to migrants, mirrors global birth rate declines, and faces its own challenges.
With Australia’s population moving through the fastest rate of growth since the 1950s, our cities and towns are naturally densifying. This is a look at the latest trends and how they will impact the property market.
Baby boomers will account for a third of population growth between 2024 and 2029, making this generation the biggest age-related growth sector over this period. They will shape the housing market with their unique preferences.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
India has overtaken China as the world's most populous nation and under a reformist Prime Minister, it's growing faster than most other emerging markets. It's also got well-run companies, some of which are global leaders.
It's a puzzle that many people want both more homeownership and more landlords and rental housing. Increasing the ratio of homeownership to rental out of the stock of homes means landlords selling on balance.
New data shows China's demographic issues are much worse than most realise. This is going to be the final decade that China can exist as a modern nation-state because it simply isn't going to have the people to even try.
Australia’s population rose by 497,000 in 2022, driven by a record net overseas migration of 387,000. It's a staggering number that's grabbed headlines, yet less talked about is the continued decline in our fertility rates.
The structural drivers for China's rise remain intact. Companies there will benefit from rising incomes, increasing demand for premium goods and services, and burgeoning sophistication in technology and manufacturing.
The recovery in net migration will be much stronger than government forecasts, with +400,000 expected for last year and +350,000 for 2023. This will increase total consumer spending but also expand the labour force.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.