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22 July 2024
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Across the globe, leaders are concerned about the fallout from declining birth rates and shrinking populations. Australia, though attractive to migrants, mirrors global birth rate declines, and faces its own challenges.
With Australia’s population moving through the fastest rate of growth since the 1950s, our cities and towns are naturally densifying. This is a look at the latest trends and how they will impact the property market.
Baby boomers will account for a third of population growth between 2024 and 2029, making this generation the biggest age-related growth sector over this period. They will shape the housing market with their unique preferences.
Australia will have 3.7 million more people in a decade's time, though the growth won't be evenly distributed. Over 85s will see the fastest growth, while the number of younger people will barely rise.
India has overtaken China as the world's most populous nation and under a reformist Prime Minister, it's growing faster than most other emerging markets. It's also got well-run companies, some of which are global leaders.
It's a puzzle that many people want both more homeownership and more landlords and rental housing. Increasing the ratio of homeownership to rental out of the stock of homes means landlords selling on balance.
New data shows China's demographic issues are much worse than most realise. This is going to be the final decade that China can exist as a modern nation-state because it simply isn't going to have the people to even try.
Australia’s population rose by 497,000 in 2022, driven by a record net overseas migration of 387,000. It's a staggering number that's grabbed headlines, yet less talked about is the continued decline in our fertility rates.
The structural drivers for China's rise remain intact. Companies there will benefit from rising incomes, increasing demand for premium goods and services, and burgeoning sophistication in technology and manufacturing.
The recovery in net migration will be much stronger than government forecasts, with +400,000 expected for last year and +350,000 for 2023. This will increase total consumer spending but also expand the labour force.
Many investors see Chinese property as an asset bubble that is popping. We think that assessment is incorrect and believe large, lowly indebted Chinese property developers offer a contrarian opportunity.
Fearmongering about Australia’s ageing population has ramped up again recently. If you want a big Australia, then make your argument for it, but don’t pretend that the age structure of the population is the reason why.
There seems to be more confusion than clarity about the mechanics of how the new $3 million super tax is supposed to work. Here is an attempt to answer some of the questions from my previous work on the issue.
Here are 10 rules for staying happy and sharp as we age, including socialise a lot, never retire, learn a demanding skill, practice gratitude, play video games (specific ones), and be sure to reminisce.
A new report suggests Australian housing is twice as expensive as that of the US and UK on a price-to-income basis. It also reveals that it’s cheaper to live in New York than most of our capital cities.
The discounts on listed investment vehicles are at historically wide levels. There are lots of reasons given, including size and liquidity, yet there's a better explanation for the discounts, and why a rebound may be near.
The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.
The life expectancy tables used throughout the financial advice and retirement industry have issues and you need to prepare for the possibility of living a lot longer than you might have thought. Plan accordingly.