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26 February 2026
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Nearly all the indicators an investor would look for suggest that this secular bull market is approaching its end. My models forecast that the US is set for 0% annual returns over the next decade.
The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.
Absent much higher interest rates and or unemployment, a house price crash in Australia looks unlikely. However, a failure to boost affordability risks a further slide in home ownership and rising inequality.
After three decades of phenomenal growth nationally, it seemed as though Australian house prices would never go down, until they did last year. Here is a look at previous property downturns and what we might learn from them.
Many investors see Chinese property as an asset bubble that is popping. We think that assessment is incorrect and believe large, lowly indebted Chinese property developers offer a contrarian opportunity.
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
An industry veteran told clients last week that demand for investment property has fallen off a cliff, and even price discounts were not shifting stock. Take great care what you buy.
Australian banks are vulnerable to a collapse in the local housing market due to an overexposure to high-rise developments, interest-only loans and high loan-to-value ratios. The main uncertainty is the timing.
There are seven key factors that have had a positive influence on residential housing prices over recent years, but only one of these factors is expected to remain positive over the next five years.
After a strong run for house prices, changes in bank and regulatory policies will take some steam out of the market. For the longer term good of the market, it may be better to have a pause while fundamental values catch up.
Despite having one of the world’s largest pools of capital through the superannuation system, Australia’s institutional investors, including listed trusts, have shunned investment in private rental accommodation.
The renowned investor says 2025’s real story wasn’t AI or US stocks but the shift away from American assets and a collapse in the value of money. And he outlines how to best position portfolios for what’s ahead.
The post-World War Two economic system is unravelling, leading to huge shifts in currency, bond and commodity markets, yet stocks seem oblivious to the chaos. This looks to history as a guide for what’s next.
Our cost-of-living pressures go beyond the RBA: surging house prices, excessive migration, and expanding government programs, including the NDIS, are fuelling inflation, demanding bold, structural solutions.
The capital gains tax discount is under review, but debate should go beyond its size. Its original purpose, design flaws and distortions suggest Australia could adopt a better, more targeted approach.
A more rational taxation system that supports home ownership but discourages asset speculation could provide greater financial support to first home buyers.
This is my last edition as Editor of Firstlinks. I’m moving onto a new role though the newsletter will remain in good hands until my permanent replacement is found.