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22 January 2025
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Globally, nuclear power is gathering momentum as a differentiated power source in the energy transition to zero carbon emissions. Yet in Australia, a nuclear ban remains, making us an outlier among our Western Allies.
The US has become the world's new energy superpower, combining production, technology and capital in a way never previously achieved – a development sure to have global implications for decades to come.
The crash in lithium and nickel prices has left companies scrambling to cut production, billionaires red-faced, and investors wondering how a ‘sure thing’ went so wrong. There are plenty of lessons for everyone.
Don’t look at an earnings forecast or a DCF valuation or a broker target price for a mining company. Share price forecasts are only as good as the commodity price assumptions they are based on, and they are a guess.
In the last seven years, commodity prices and the fortunes of many Australian producers went through a boom/bust cycle and are now on a recovery rebound. It's a volatile ride but a sector worth another look.
After being shunned by most investors up to early 2016, most commodity prices have experienced stellar growth in the last two years, putting resource companies back in the frame for many portfolios.
With the broad Australian stock index down 8% since the start of 2015, it looks like a poor period for equity markets. But if investors managed to avoid banks and miners, there's every chance their portfolio performed well.
Australia's economy has long had to cope with structural change, which hasn't stopped quality companies from generating wealth for investors. But with increasing complexity, picking winners and losers will become harder.
Looking at the big picture, the world will gradually move away from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Progress will be slow and timing uncertain, but investments will need to adapt to the change in energy usage.
Amid the bucket loads of optimism and faith, just as you want to rush out of the room and buy some gold bullion or gold shares, along comes somebody to spoil the party.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.