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21 January 2025
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Less government involvement in the economy and markets is long overdue. But investors need to consider what a reduced government role may mean for the profitability of businesses that are unable to offset rising cost pressures.
They are six of the greatest businesses ever and should form part of the global portfolios of all investors. The market sees risk in inflation and valuations but the companies are positioned for outstanding growth.
If the world’s largest economy adopted a true MMT framework, the investment implications would be enormous. Economic growth would be materially greater but inflation and interest rates would also be much higher.
Biden is close but Republicans will likely hold the Senate. A split Congress has historically resulted in higher market returns. Investors should note that company earnings, not elections, drive the stock market.
If he wins, Joe Biden will enter office with a weak mandate relative to expectations due to the underperformance of his party, but the executive branch wields a great deal of power in the regulatory framework.
Over the long term it doesn’t matter who is the President as the US has thrived under different presidencies and parties. At least as important for Australia is the deterioration of our China relationship.
The US is days away from a presidential election with major repercussions for economic policy and investments in the US and the world. Views from First Sentier Investors and BNP Paribas Asset Management.
The recovery from COVID-19 is looking more like a K-shape, with some companies doing well while others struggle. The pandemic seems more akin to a black swan, exogenous shock than a structural downturn.
Trump or Biden? Our readers make a nailbiting call, while your predictions for the ASX300 over the long term show optimism while flat over the short term. The best insights come from the hundreds of revealing comments.
The deep financial, economic and political crises came to a head at the end of the 1970s when the US Government defaulted on its debt. It became the dawn of a brand new era of growth and prosperity for Americans.
The current US budget crisis will not be the first time its government has run out of money. Scary as this may sound to investors, the impact on markets of recent government shutdowns was different to what many expected.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.