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22 December 2024

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This cornerstone of stock market valuation has been left behind

For decades, cyclically adjusted P/E ratios have been a common and widely accepted gauge of market valuation. But as the financial landscape continues to evolve, so too must our tools for understanding it.

20 US stocks to buy and hold forever

Recently, I compiled a list of ASX stocks that you could buy and hold forever. Here’s a follow-up list of US stocks that you could own indefinitely, including well-known names like Microsoft, as well as lesser-known gems.

Are expectations for the Magnificent Seven too high?

Valuations for the Magnificent Seven stocks are baking in extraordinary growth over the next decade. History shows that delivering on high growth expectations is difficult, but will this time prove different?

Recession surprise may be in store for the US stock market

Markets are partying like it's 1999, but history suggests that US earnings and economic growth are vulnerable following an interest rate tightening cycle. Investors should prepare their portfolios accordingly.

5 big calls for 2024

We're likely to see higher interest rates for longer as inflation pressures remain elevated both here and the US. The top picks for 2024 centre around being defensive and looking for pockets of opportunity.

It's time small and mid-caps play catchup

In recent years, large caps returns have dwarfed those of small and mid-caps, especially in the US. 2024 could be the year that reverses as earnings growth re-accelerates for higher quality smaller companies.

Don't be fooled: a recessionary hit is coming

The concentrated nature of 2023’s equities gains – driven by a handful of mega-cap technology and internet companies – hides signs of increasing vulnerability within markets. It's time to get defensive and buy quality stocks.

3 fortress growth stocks for volatile times

The market has erred by shunning growth companies indiscriminately. There are many growing businesses that enjoy strong free cash flow and robust balance sheets, including three US-listed large-cap companies outlined here.

Australian shares outperform the US as commodities soar

After many years of underperformance, 2022 could finally be the year that Australian shares outperform the US market, thanks to higher commodity prices and heavy falls in technology stocks.

Why AI is today’s most important investment theme

Three companies rank as amazing 'hyperscalers' which will revolutionise industries as Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning change the way business is done. They deserve a place in most portfolios.

How real are the three key regulatory risks facing Big Tech?

Drawing on experience as a bank analyst who studied the legislative process during the GFC, an internet analyst now has a unique insight into three key risks faced by Big Tech and implications for share prices.

Tech continues to run on rising prices not profits

The global tech run paused in September but the boom is driven by rising prices rather than actual profits. It will end when global confidence in the prospect of endless monetary and fiscal stimulus runs out.

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Vale Graham Hand

It’s with heavy hearts that we announce Firstlinks’ co-founder and former Managing Editor, Graham Hand, has died aged 66. Graham was a legendary figure in the finance industry and here are three tributes to him.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Avoiding wealth transfer pitfalls

Australia is in the early throes of an intergenerational wealth transfer worth an estimated $3.5 trillion. Here's a case study highlighting some of the challenges with transferring wealth between generations.

Taxpayers betrayed by Future Fund debacle

The Future Fund's original purpose was to meet the unfunded liabilities of Commonwealth defined benefit schemes. These liabilities have ballooned to an estimated $290 billion and taxpayers continue to be treated like fools.

Australia’s shameful super gap

ASFA provides a key guide for how much you will need to live on in retirement. Unfortunately it has many deficiencies, and the averages don't tell the full story of the growing gender superannuation gap.

Looking beyond banks for dividend income

The Big Four banks have had an extraordinary run and it’s left income investors with a conundrum: to stick with them even though they now offer relatively low dividend yields and limited growth prospects or to look elsewhere.

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