Register For Our Mailing List

Register to receive our free weekly newsletter including editorials.

Home / 359

COVID Susceptibility Index can help to manage outbreaks

Background: At a recent UNSW virtual research seminar, Calise Liu and Alan Xian presented their research on developing a COVID-19 Susceptibility Index. This interview explores the research and its potential applications. Calise works at Finity Consulting, which specialises in actuarial and strategic analytics consulting. Alan has nearly finished his PhD at UNSW and will start a role at Macquarie University later this year. 

David: With your actuarial backgrounds, what motivated you to get involved in COVID-19 research, which to many is the domain of medical researchers?

Calise: Once you have data (and there is a lot of data available), many of the skills required to analyse that data are universal. We had read a lot of medical literature but hadn’t seen the translation of those results to the Australian population. Actuaries are particularly well-placed because we have expertise in modelling large demographic data sets. Of course, we are not medical experts and so we made sure to get specialist medical input. We held discussions with six medical experts on the design aspects of our research.

David: Why the focus on susceptibility?

Alan: There was already a lot of research modelling transmission of the virus. We noticed a research gap in terms of investigating susceptibility at a demographic level. Susceptibility, the risk of severe illness or death if an individual were to contract the virus, is important in many ways. At a government level, susceptibility tells you how bad it could be in each region if an outbreak were to occur. This then informs decisions around resource allocation and how quickly you want to be able to identify and treat known cases.

David: Explain how you have developed the Susceptibility Index.

Alan: We combined age characteristics (60-69, 70-79, and 80+) with five health aspects (known as co-morbidities): cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, cancer, diabetes and obesity. Unfortunately, the data shows that certain groups – notably the elderly with multiple health issues – are many times more likely to have severe reactions if infected with COVID-19, compared with young healthy people.

Calise: By combining our susceptibility score with Finity’s Defin’d dataset of socio-demographic and geographic attributes, we can explore COVID-19 impacts by area, household composition, income band, industry and more. We found some evidence of vulnerable populations away from capital cities, where multiple risk factors are more concentrated. We used heatmaps to visualise the susceptibility risk (red indicates areas with, on average, highest susceptibility).

The news is both good and bad. So far, most of the cases have occurred in areas with relatively-lower susceptibility. However, this is something to consider when looking at when, where and how to relax restrictions.

David: When you combine the demographic data with age and health factors, do any socio-economic effects emerge?

Alan: Unfortunately, we find that at-risk communities commonly have low socio-economic characteristics (i.e. low income). This isn’t surprising – when we spoke to our medical experts, they were aware that health issues and co-morbidities tend to present more strongly in poorer socio-economic groups. As a result, the disadvantaged segments of Australia may require additional resources as we start relaxing isolation measures.

David: What are the implications for government policy?

Calise: We think our work can inform policy in a number of ways. Our model provides an exposure measure for the Australian population that can serve as a foundation for various extensions. Transmission information can be overlaid to assess the impact of various policies. Our analysis can also highlight areas where outbreaks of COVID-19 may be particularly devastating, guiding decisions around allocation of financial and medical resources. Conversely, the additional economic information could be incorporated to examine trade-offs between simulating economic recovery and minimising risk to public safety.

David: I know this is early days, but have you been able to share this research with authorities?

Alan: We have had some interest from the Department of Health. We are happy to work with any interested parties to see how our work could be of assistance.

David: Finally, Alan, you’ve effectively put your PhD on hold, and Calise, you’ve been supported by Finity, but most of this research is outside of work hours. Do you think that this may be a feature of your future careers, jumping into projects outside your core line of research where you see the opportunity to contribute?

Calise: I think many young people view contribution as an important part of their career. I’m fortunate to have an analytical skillset which can be applied to different problems. 

Alan: I do have to finish my PhD soon and am looking forward to that light at the end of the tunnel. Luckily, I have supportive supervisors who share my view that these contributions are worthwhile pursuits. At the start of my PhD, what I really wanted was to produce societally beneficial research and so these projects are very exciting. 

 

Individuals with co-morbidities or symptoms associated with COVID-19 should follow the government advice and take extra precautions which can be found here.

If you would like to know more about the Susceptibility Index you can read more here.

 

David Bell is Executive Director of The Conexus Institute, a not-for-profit research institution focused on improving retirement outcomes for Australians. Calise Liu is a Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia and an intern at Finity Consulting. Alan Xian is a PhD candidate at UNSW.

 


 

Leave a Comment:

RELATED ARTICLES

What should the next generation's Australia look like?

Halving super drawdowns helps wealthy retirees most

Baby bust: will infertility shape Australia's future?

banner

Most viewed in recent weeks

16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever, updated

This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now. 

2025-26 super thresholds – key changes and implications

The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.  

Is Gen X ready for retirement?

With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?

Why the $5.4 trillion wealth transfer is a generational tragedy

The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.

The 2025 Australian Federal election – implications for investors

With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.

What Warren Buffett isn’t saying speaks volumes

Warren Buffett's annual shareholder letter has been fixture for avid investors for decades. In his latest letter, Buffett is reticent on many key topics, but his actions rather than words are sending clear signals to investors.

Latest Updates

World's largest asset manager wants to revolutionise your portfolio

Larry Fink is one of the smartest people in the finance industry. In his latest shareholder letter, the Blackrock CEO outlines his quest to become the biggest player in private assets and upend investor portfolios.

Economy

Australia's economic report card heading into the polls

Our economy grew by a nominal rate of 7% per annum from 2017 to 2024, but it benefited from the largesse of fiscal and monetary policies, both of which are now fading. We need a new, credible economic growth agenda.

Preference votes matter

If the recent polls are anything to go by, we are headed for a hung parliament at the upcoming federal election. So more than ever, Australians need to give serious consideration to their preference votes.

SMSF strategies

Meg on SMSFs: Tips for the last member standing

It’s common for people as they age to seek more help in running their SMSF if their capacity declines. An alternate director may be a great solution for someone just planning for short-term help in the meantime.

Wilson Asset Management on markets and its new income fund

In this interview, Matthew Haupt from Wilson Asset Management discusses his outloook for the ASX, sectors such as REITs that he likes, and his firm's launch of a new income-oriented listed investment company.  

Planning

‘Life expectancy’ – and why I don’t like the expression

Life expectancy isn't just a number - it's a concept that changes with survival rates over time. This article breaks down how age, survival, and societal factors shape our understanding of life expectancy, especially post-Covid. 

The shine is back on gold, and gold miners

Gold mining stocks outperformed in 2024 and are expected to do well in 2025. At this point in the rally, it's worth considering what has driven gold prices higher and why miners could still have some catching up to do.

Sponsors

Alliances

© 2025 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer
The data, research and opinions provided here are for information purposes; are not an offer to buy or sell a security; and are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate. Morningstar, its affiliates, and third-party content providers are not responsible for any investment decisions, damages or losses resulting from, or related to, the data and analyses or their use. To the extent any content is general advice, it has been prepared for clients of Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892), without reference to your financial objectives, situation or needs. For more information refer to our Financial Services Guide. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. Articles are current as at date of publication.
This website contains information and opinions provided by third parties. Inclusion of this information does not necessarily represent Morningstar’s positions, strategies or opinions and should not be considered an endorsement by Morningstar.