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Edition: 452

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Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 452 with weekend update

  • 31 March 2022
  • 2

Every Federal Budget is a balance of politics and economics. On Tuesday, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg handed out some short-term goodies leaving a few grenades for the other side of the election. There was little in the Budget on superannuation, which seems to have lost its proclivity as a fiscal punching bag. The bigger problem is where inflation and interest rates are headed. Plus conflicted commissions are back by reclassifying clients.

Conflicted selling fees are back, and it’s game on

If you thought fund managers were banned from paying commissions to financial advisers and brokers to prevent conflicts of interest, you have not kept up with the move to classify clients as wholesale investors. 

Investing throughout economic cycles

Each stage in the economic cycle has unique characteristics that impact the relative performance of factors of individual shares that explain the long-term risk and return performance of an asset.

Two companies well-positioned amid supply chain disruption

Supply chain pressures highlight the important role and economic value created by companies working to make our infrastructure more efficient. We review two logistics companies that are well positioned to perform.

The inflation inflection: Adjusting to the new paradigm

The Covid-19 pandemic, and the range of policies aimed at mitigating its impact, has triggered a return to levels of inflation unseen for 40 years. Investors need to prepare for persistently higher inflation.

Embracing the bright side of population decline

With global population expected to decline from 2064, it’s easy to focus on the negative economic outcomes. But what about the positives, such as wages growth, sustainability, and innovation and productivity improvements?

Yikes! Three critical factors acting on inflation and rates

Despite inflation rising as companies pass on price increases, the RBA is reluctant to increase rates. The market is pricing in a dozen rises by the end of 2023, but Philip Lowe will see a threat to his legacy.

Federal Budget 2022: A “magic election pudding”

A budget windfall has allowed both more spending and lower budget deficits. But relying on nominal economic growth to reduce the deficit runs the risk that it could take a very long time to get debt levels back down.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

What to expect from the Australian property market in 2025

The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.

Howard Marks warns of market froth

The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

9 lessons from 2024

Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.

The 20 most popular articles of 2024

Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.

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