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21 January 2025
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Many people in the Firstlinks community have been reading my articles and editorials for 10 years or more, and worked with me for decades before that, and deserve an explanation for why I have suddenly stopped writing each week.
In a wide-ranging interview, John Pearce explains why the 60/40 portfolio is far from dead, that history is a dangerous guide to the future, his recent investments and how the power dynamics in the market have changed.
The ASX 200 is around the same price that it was 16 years ago. The poor long-term performance can be largely blamed on our taxation system, which encourages companies to pay out most of their earnings as dividends.
Everyone seems to have an opinion on house prices and not all of it is based on fact. Here is an analysis of the current supply and demand factors influencing residential property and the stocks poised to outperform.
It's impossible to predict when the next recession will happen. That said, looking at which types of investments have historically fared best during economic downturns can help you limit some of the damage.
A turnaround in the fortunes of ASX small caps is overdue after a disappointing 2023. It's important to pick your spots though, and miners and building materials companies look the standouts heading into next year.
Accounting losses from a pandemic inspired bond buying spree have wiped out the RBA's equity and more, pushing its balance sheet into negative equity territory. How did it happen and what lessons can be learned?
The negative stock/bond correlation from 1998 until 2019 was the anomaly, not the positive relationship that began in 2022. In the years ahead, portfolio diversification should come increasingly from security and manager selection.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.