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10 March 2025
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Markets appear to be taking an optimistic view on the year ahead, pricing in a ‘lot of good news’. VanEck's recent outlook provides analysis of the global macroeconomic landscape, noting several challenges that investors should note which overshadow this market positivity.
VanEck’s latest portfolio compass dissects its observations on inflation, policy rates, economic growth and exogenous risks. While the US appears fully priced, there looks to be opportunities in equities at the sector, regional, market capitalisation and stock levels.
Covering local and international markets, VanEck's new report on credit and fixed income investing analyses the current state of play across relevant asset classes in light of expected rate movements in Australia and the US.
Every percentage point outside of consensus, and every basis point change has been thrilling markets. It’s what lies beneath that markets are waiting for.
VanEck's Australian equities outlook, published April 2024, dissects its views on inflation, policy rates, economic growth, external risks and market implications as the lagged effect of one of the sharpest RBA rate hike cycles hits hardest this year.
‘Divergence’ is the key theme for VanEck's latest update as 2024 heralds a distinct de-syncing of central banks, which had more or less been following a similar approach to monetary policy for the last few years.
Most investors remain under-allocated to emerging market (EM) bonds despite hard currency EM bonds having outperformed developed market bonds over the past 20 years.
Views on inflation, policy rates, economic growth and exogenous risks following the sharp rate hikes of last year. On balance, Australia and US should avoid a recession without the need for central bank policy rate cuts to smoothen the landing.
How do investors approach 2024? The investment playbook is to approach risk assets selectively. A good start is to focus on leverage i.e. balance sheets and cash flow. We could see the US dollar come off further and gold continue to shine.
VanEck's latest outlook for global and Australian markets for the rest of the year concludes that inflation should rise, gold could glow, and puts liquidity and balance sheets in focus.
Market movements during the second quarter have been unpredictable and narrowly focused. The Fed’s fight against inflation still weighs on markets. A pivot in central bank policy may only happen if the order of magnitude changes significantly. This is true for both the Fed and the RBA.
Equal weight allocation outperforms market capitalisation indices because it consistently gives greater exposure to smaller stocks, which tend to outperform larger ones. VanEck has released its new findings capturing the recovery subsequent to the COVID-19 falls in this report.
New research shows global small-caps, which are typically underrepresented in Australian investment portfolios, have outperformed international large- and mid-caps as well as Australian small-caps over the long term.
As long-term rate expectations fall while recessionary risks increase investors should focus on liquidity, strong balance sheets and cash flow, and avoid highly volatile and speculative assets according to VanEck’s latest quarterly economic outlook.
Global markets were dragged down in 2022 by the trifactor of multi-decade high inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and China’s COVID-zero policy. While almost every major asset class took a sizeable hit last year, Australian equities presented a different story.
Many investors are set to feel the brunt of the great paradigm shift that reared its head last year, with central bank tightening likely to finally see significant impacts. However, pockets of opportunity abound.
Investors are deep in the inflation era. The question is, how deep? Are we up to our knees, our waist or our necks? And is the depth subsiding?
The Australian equities market is one of the most concentrated by stock and sector. The universe is also small relative to global markets. This paper shows that these nuances present challenges when assessing factor strategy efficacy.
Investors are already feeling the bear market blues, but it's wise to remember that bear markets are normal and tend to be short-lived. On the plus side, they present opportunities for those who know where to look.
The last quarter of 2021 has been a lesson that has demonstrated that market participants, like the 2005 Daft Punk album, are human after all.
While most Australian investors have exposure to local property securities for their regular income and potential capital growth, it’s unlikely they’ve considered property beyond our shores.
A guide to international small companies investing.
An investor’s perspective on the disruptive impact and potential for continued growth of esports and video gaming.
The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.
This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now.
While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.
With the arrival of the new year, the first members of ‘Generation X’ turned 60, marking the start of the MTV generation’s collective journey towards retirement. Are Gen Xers and our retirement system ready for the transition?
The capital gains tax main residence exemption is no longer 'fit for purpose', due to its inequities, inefficiency, and complexity. Here are several suggestions for adapting or curtailing the concession.
A Grattan Institute report suggests lifetime annuities as a solution to people not spending their super balances. The issue is whether underspending is the real problem or a sign of more fundamental failings in our retirement system.