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22 January 2025
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A budget windfall has allowed both more spending and lower budget deficits. But relying on nominal economic growth to reduce the deficit runs the risk that it could take a very long time to get debt levels back down.
Governments and investors have been complacent about the build up of debt, but at some level, a ceiling exists. Are we near yet? Trouble is brewing, especially in the eurozone and emerging countries.
The level of Commonwealth government debt to GDP is the highest it has been since the 1950s, and it’s only likely to worsen in the face of populist policies. Is this something we should worry about?
Despite the wide-spread perception that Australia’s debt position is unsustainable, it’s low in an historical sense and when compared to national income. We could be making more use of it.
During the Australian government debt default, how did the performance of equities versus bonds compare? It was a time when investing in bonds was more common than equities.
Even when governments default on their debts, there is money to be made by investors who resist the temptation to panic sell in a crisis.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.