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21 January 2025
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Peter Dutton has made housing a key issue for the next election, pledging to “restore the Australian dream” of home ownership. It got me thinking about what this dream represents, how it originated, and whether it’s still relevant today.
Like negative gearing, discounted capital gains tax, especially on residential investment properties, is criticised for giving investors an edge over first-home buyers. A discount is justified but at what level?
The budget has cost-of-living support including energy relief, cheaper medicines, improved bulk billing access, and rental help. It also hints the Government won't change the way it calculates the new super tax.
Superannuation is both a revenue source from taxes and a cost from concessions. The Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) has released its first 'super explainer' and it shows how they think and perhaps future targets.
Economic growth, profit growth and therefore dividend growth for Australia is fairly assured over the next decade and the opportunity for patient investors to benefit is greatly enhanced by recent price corrections.
The Federal Budget may not have been the most exciting, but it's got a number of implications for superannuation. Here's a summary of what was included and excluded, as well as what was new and what wasn't.
The costs of aged care will only continue to increase as the Baby Boomer generation moves into their frailty years, increasing not only the demand for services but also higher consumer expectations around the quality of service.
Governments borrowing for roads, infrastructure and items that have a long-term payback is good debt, but cash handouts for the sole purpose of getting the government back into power is 'bad' debt.
A budget windfall has allowed both more spending and lower budget deficits. But relying on nominal economic growth to reduce the deficit runs the risk that it could take a very long time to get debt levels back down.
The Pension Loans Scheme has generated little interest but Budget improvements may change that, including the introduction of lump-sum payments. It is also available to non-pensioners but the rate remains too high.
The $17.7 billion plan for aged care looks exciting but while the system will provide greater choice, transparency and care for many, there will still be senior members of 'Team Australia' who miss out.
Among the share success stories is a poor personal experience as Telstra's service needs improving. Plus why the new budget announcements on downsizing and buying a home don't deserve the super hype.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.