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22 April 2025
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Will the Year of the Dragon prove a fruitful one for markets? Strong labor markets and a loosening in financial conditions should help in the first half of 2024, though things may get more rocky as the year progresses.
The Chinese economic model needs an overhaul and a currency devaluation is one way for the country to restructure. If a devaluation happens, it will have significant ramifications for Australia and the world.
The structural drivers for China's rise remain intact. Companies there will benefit from rising incomes, increasing demand for premium goods and services, and burgeoning sophistication in technology and manufacturing.
Regulatory tightening has wiped US$1 trillion off China’s stockmarket over the past year, but this is not representative of the whole private sector. It is catching up with global practices of supervision of tech.
China is approaching a 'Lewis turning point' at the same time it faces a demographic time bomb with its rapidly-ageing 1.4 billion population. How it solves these problems will have a massive impact on Australia.
Australia has its tensions with China but with a strong base and a competitive, well-educated workforce, China’s manufacturing champions will advance its technology prowess and gain global market share.
Consumers are now having a bigger impact on China’s economic growth to the benefit of multinationals, but foreign companies can face boycotts when pursuing Chinese consumers.
The debt picture in China is complicated by the many layers of property development, shadow banking and local government, and it poses a risk to China's economic stability.
Recent economic volatility in China could signal an important social shift - one which could actually drive China’s future growth and transform the country’s economic model.
A 'hard landing' scenario for China could see many areas adversely affected, with one problem leading to another. Australia would feel the effects of such a downturn but no-one knows the magnitude.
The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.
With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.
With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.
The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today.
The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.
Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now?