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22 January 2025
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Australian consumers have held up remarkably well amid rising interest rates and inflation. Yet, there are increasing signs that this is turning, and the weakness in consumer spending may last years, not months.
This year has been quite shocking for investors who are probably wondering when the turbulence will end. Given that, we take a step back and look at 5 charts that provide some context on the current environment.
When the pandemic hit, consumers switched their buying to goods as they could not get out to consume services. Now, habits are normalising, with implications for travel, hotels, sporting goods and 'experiences'.
A structural theme that will drive future earnings growth is the ‘emerging consumer’. The rising wealth in emerging economies will drive sub-sectors such as luxury goods, cosmetics, travel, global brands and alcohol.
A high level of spending capacity is left in consumers which will support consumer-related stocks for a longer period than is factored into current share prices. Savers have lots of money sitting in the bank.
The Australian market overall finished flat for calendar 2020, but the pandemic delivered big wins and losses. The companies, sectors and companies you invested in delivered vastly different results.
The growth in wealth and aspirations of middle-class Chinese may become a 'consumer of last resort' for the world economy, but to earn that status, China must avoid a ‘trap’ among other challenges.
Even when the virus is finally contained, the business landscape will look very different. A critical issue is the ability of consumers to find product substitutes. Many people like what they find.
Too many investors are lumping all companies together in the current crisis, but some businesses will emerge in good shape with recovering revenues, while others are disadvantaged permanently.
Food and beverage producers are under pressure to reduce the harmful impact of their products, and investors can encourage the trend by investing in companies or funds that recognise society's needs.
In some markets, the sheer volume of money flows into both good and bad companies, but when tougher conditions inevitably come, it's the quality earnings that sustain.
Contrary to traditional economic models, excess choice can be bewildering to consumers. Some customisation-from-scratch businesses are failing, and half-way solutions might be better.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.