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Forecasting

1-12 out of 24 results.

Read this before you go all in on US equities

US equities rule global markets, but history is littered with examples of markets that seemed invincible — until they weren’t. Diversification will be key for investor portfolios going forwards.

Federal budget forecast errors need greater scrutiny

The discrepancies that are appearing between Treasury budget forecasts and actual outcomes need closer examination. The inaccurate forecasts are impacting economic projections and investment decisions.

Australian stocks will crush housing over the next decade, one year on

Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.

Howard Marks on the best opportunities in 2024

In his latest memo, Marks outlines how today’s markets are dramatically different from those of the past 40 years, that equity valuations are mildly expensive, and the most compelling opportunities for investors.

Investors don't forecast well, and that's good news

All the evidence suggests investors can't forecast well. While that might appear to be bad news, if you dig a little deeper, it can create opportunities for those investors that are prepared to think differently.

Investment forecasts unreliable in unpredictable times

We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.

10 key investment themes for 2022

The end of the year is approaching fast, when investors consider rebalancing their portfolios. What are the big themes in a market facing the threat of inflation and rising rates for the first time in many years?

Why market forecasts matter to long-term investors

Investors should prepare for a decade of returns below historical averages for both stocks and bonds. Over the next decade, equity returns may be tiny compared with the lofty double-digit returns of recent years.

What do you expect from your portfolio today?

Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.

Investing is like water, but what the hell is water?

Markets always deliver delusions and manias, but there's something unique now. Investors do not speak a common language at a time when there's more money for speculative ideas than ever. Check the water.

Where will investment returns come from in 2021?

There are only three sources of returns when investing in companies. Whether an investment delivers on dividends, earnings or valuation expansion determines performance, and the contribution of each varies over time.

Investment forecasts: foresight or folly?

It's easy to find eminent market experts with completely opposite views on the market at any moment. View the forecasts of investment gurus for what they are: guesstimates. Only you can decide what's right for you.

Most viewed in recent weeks

Retirement is a risky business for most people

While encouraging people to draw down on their accumulated wealth in retirement might be good public policy, several million retirees disagree because they are purposefully conserving that capital. It’s time for a different approach.

The perfect portfolio for the next decade

This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.

UniSuper’s boss flags a potential correction ahead

The CIO of Australia’s fourth largest super fund by assets, John Pearce, suggests the odds favour a flat year for markets, with the possibility of a correction of 10% or more. However, he’ll use any dip as a buying opportunity.

The challenges with building a dividend portfolio

Getting regular, growing income from stocks is tougher with the dividend yield on the ASX nearing 25-year lows. Here are some conventional and not-so-conventional ideas for investors wanting to build a dividend portfolio.

How much do you need to retire?

Australians are used to hearing dire warnings that they don't have enough saved for a comfortable retirement. Yet most people need to save a lot less than you might think — as long as they meet an important condition.

Welcome to Firstlinks Edition 594 with weekend update

It’s well documented that many retirees draw down the minimum amount required and die with much of their super balances untouched. This explores the reasons why and some potential solutions to address the issue.

  • 16 January 2025

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