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21 January 2025
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Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
In his latest memo, Marks outlines how today’s markets are dramatically different from those of the past 40 years, that equity valuations are mildly expensive, and the most compelling opportunities for investors.
All the evidence suggests investors can't forecast well. While that might appear to be bad news, if you dig a little deeper, it can create opportunities for those investors that are prepared to think differently.
We use weather forecasts to inform our planning but they do not entirely drive decision making. The same should happen with investment outlooks. A globally diversified portfolio will serve best in unpredictable times.
The end of the year is approaching fast, when investors consider rebalancing their portfolios. What are the big themes in a market facing the threat of inflation and rising rates for the first time in many years?
Investors should prepare for a decade of returns below historical averages for both stocks and bonds. Over the next decade, equity returns may be tiny compared with the lofty double-digit returns of recent years.
Recent history has been spectacularly good for most asset classes but there is a the colossal gap between fundamentally-based forecasts of stockmarket returns over the next 5-10 years and investor expectations.
Markets always deliver delusions and manias, but there's something unique now. Investors do not speak a common language at a time when there's more money for speculative ideas than ever. Check the water.
There are only three sources of returns when investing in companies. Whether an investment delivers on dividends, earnings or valuation expansion determines performance, and the contribution of each varies over time.
It's easy to find eminent market experts with completely opposite views on the market at any moment. View the forecasts of investment gurus for what they are: guesstimates. Only you can decide what's right for you.
A summary of 10 investing themes for 2021 including early-cycle opportunities, populism, digital transformation and supply chains, plus the outlook for equities, fixed interest and alternatives.
The next phase of recovery depends on immunity to COVID and reduced consumer reluctance to engage in normal economic activities. What are the various scenarios and how do they influence a balanced portfolio?
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.