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28 January 2025
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GDP was 0.3% for last quarter but the real story is this was Australia’s seventh consecutive quarter of negative GDP per capita growth. How does this economic drought compare to past ones, and what can we expect in future?
British colonisation's Common Law system contributed to economic prosperity, in contrast to Latin America's lower wealth under Civil Law. It influenced capitalism's success in former British colonies, like Australia.
The 2024 Nobel Prize in Economics has been awarded to three US-based economists who examined the advantages of democracy and the rule of law, and why they are strong in some countries and not others.
Despite being richer, surveyed measures of happiness have been flat to falling in Australia. Some suggest we should focus less on GDP and more on broader measures of wellbeing, though there are pros and cons to that approach.
Global equity markets face serious challenges, including expensive equity valuations, sticky inflation, high interest rates, and huge debt levels in most major economies. Recession seems probable, as does low equity returns.
Super concessions are forecast to overtake the cost of the Age Pension in the 2040s. They're creating a skewed system of reward for higher super balances in retirement and will widen the gap between rich and poor.
As geopolitical tensions rise, Western countries are trying to de-couple from China and source products from other nations. The question is: which countries can replace China as the world's manufacturing powerhouse?
Now is a good time to look at what investors should expect if a recession does arrive in the US soon. Here are seven recession 'truths', including who will be to blame for a recession and the prospects of timing the bottom.
Fearmongering about Australia’s ageing population has ramped up again recently. If you want a big Australia, then make your argument for it, but don’t pretend that the age structure of the population is the reason why.
Economic growth, profit growth and therefore dividend growth for Australia is fairly assured over the next decade and the opportunity for patient investors to benefit is greatly enhanced by recent price corrections.
The odds favour a US recession, albeit a mild one. If Australia can manage an orderly reduction of household debt, then it will give the RBA more flexibility to increase interest rates and bring them in line with US rates.
Governments and investors have been complacent about the build up of debt, but at some level, a ceiling exists. Are we near yet? Trouble is brewing, especially in the eurozone and emerging countries.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
2024 was a banner year for equities, with a run-up in US tech stocks broadening into a global market rally, and the big question now is whether the good times can continue? History suggests optimism is warranted.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.