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22 July 2024
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When we look back five years from now, which companies will we regret not having bought at today’s prices? The next opportunities come from focusing on the long term, not the next few months.
It might be a 'black swan' event, but the market is down only 15% since its peak. Looking back at an article written in 2008 reveals the uncertainty at the time was similar to the unknowns now.
After a big rally in 2019, institutions are far more pessimistic about 2020, and 83% expect a GFC-type event within the next five years. They see a strong role for active investing to reduce the downside.
Australia's major banks face many challenges but they are strong and remarkably adaptive and resilient. They have also finally accepted they are too big to behave badly.
Those who worry about a tough year for shares in 2019 should not overlook the risks in fixed rate bonds, which might not be the defensive play required at this time. Better to watch for the bargains the share market will offer.
Before the GFC, many experienced market professionals forgot about risks such as liquidity, and did not do the research needed to minimise the problems. It will all happen again.
The 2008 GFC actually started a year earlier in the global credit markets, but the equity markets ignored the warning signs. With hindsight, everyone had the chance to exit shares at elevated prices.
The intuition is that stock markets should perform in line with an economy's GDP, but a look at the last decade shows little relationship, and perhaps the opposite is more accurate.
There seems to be more confusion than clarity about the mechanics of how the new $3 million super tax is supposed to work. Here is an attempt to answer some of the questions from my previous work on the issue.
Here are 10 rules for staying happy and sharp as we age, including socialise a lot, never retire, learn a demanding skill, practice gratitude, play video games (specific ones), and be sure to reminisce.
A new report suggests Australian housing is twice as expensive as that of the US and UK on a price-to-income basis. It also reveals that it’s cheaper to live in New York than most of our capital cities.
The discounts on listed investment vehicles are at historically wide levels. There are lots of reasons given, including size and liquidity, yet there's a better explanation for the discounts, and why a rebound may be near.
The best way to lose money in markets is to chase the latest stock fad. Conversely, the best way to build wealth is by pursuing a timeless investment strategy that won’t be swayed by short-term market gyrations.
The life expectancy tables used throughout the financial advice and retirement industry have issues and you need to prepare for the possibility of living a lot longer than you might have thought. Plan accordingly.