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21 January 2025
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Debt recycling is a powerful strategy for those juggling the seemingly competing goals of debt reduction and building an investment portfolio. Yet it's often misunderstood because it isn't just a single strategy.
Australians are taking more mortgage debt into their 60s than ever before. Retirement planning assumptions haven’t adapted and could result in future income projections that ultimately disappoint retirees.
Peter Dutton has made housing a key issue for the next election, pledging to “restore the Australian dream” of home ownership. It got me thinking about what this dream represents, how it originated, and whether it’s still relevant today.
After three decades of phenomenal growth nationally, it seemed as though Australian house prices would never go down, until they did last year. Here is a look at previous property downturns and what we might learn from them.
Interest rates are political dynamite in Australia given high home ownership and household debt. But increased rates are not bad for everyone and they are what's needed after the serious central banking errors of the past decade.
Economic growth, profit growth and therefore dividend growth for Australia is fairly assured over the next decade and the opportunity for patient investors to benefit is greatly enhanced by recent price corrections.
RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, says that surging house prices are not as important as full employment, but a previous Governor, Glenn Stevens, had other priorities, putting the "elevated level of house prices" first.
We tend to forget that house prices often fall. Direct lending controls are more effective than rate rises because macroprudential limits affect the volume of money for housing leaving business rates untouched.
Housing prices and construction rose dramatically until 2016, and since then, low interest rates are helping home owners weather the storm of falling prices. How long until the blue sky shines again?
The tightening of credit conditions for home lending driven by the Royal Commission has not fully translated into aggregate statistics, and the slowdown may already be worse than we realise.
A decline in activity related to household construction, combined with the arrival of foreign retail brands, does not bode well for Australian retailers. And an online behemoth may be an even bigger threat.
Household borrowing, mainly for property, now far exceeds business borrowing, but it is businesses that create jobs and wealth. The crackdown on housing debt is overdue.
Last year, I wrote an article suggesting returns from ASX stocks would trample those from housing over the next decade. One year later, this is an update on how that forecast is going and what's changed since.
The housing market was subdued in 2024, and pessimism abounds as we start the new year. 2025 is likely to be a tale of two halves, with interest rate cuts fuelling a resurgence in buyer demand in the second half of the year.
The renowned investor has penned his first investor letter for 2025 and it’s a ripper. He runs through what bubbles are, which ones he’s experienced, and whether today’s markets qualify as the third major bubble of this century.
This examines the performance of key asset classes and sub-sectors in 2024 and over longer timeframes, and the lessons that can be drawn for constructing an investment portfolio for the next decade.
Key lessons include expensive stocks can always get more expensive, Bitcoin is our tulip mania, follow the smart money, the young are coming with pitchforks on housing, and the importance of staying invested.
Check out the most-read Firstlinks articles from 2024. From '16 ASX stocks to buy and hold forever', to 'The best strategy to build income for life', and 'Where baby boomer wealth will end up', there's something for all.