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11 April 2025
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The current bank turmoil should not be a GFC-type event, although the risk of tightening credit conditions is real. Volatile markets are an opportunity to buy strong, growing companies trading at attractive valuations.
The key issue that lies behind the banking turmoil is the constriction of credit supply that central banks are inducing amidst their assault on inflation. The withdrawal of liquidity finds out weaknesses in the system.
Central banks are unable to ignore the inflation in front of them, but underlying macro-economic conditions indicate that inflation may be transitory and the consequences of monetary tightening dangerous.
With bond rates and Reserve Bank actions driving equity markets and inflationary expectations, it pays to understand what is really happening in both central bank and commercial bank balance sheets.
Higher volatility, higher funding costs, US rate rises with AUD interest rates decoupling, Quantitative Tightening, maturing bond reinvestment flows all point to a difficult 2018.
A counter-view on why bond yields are so low, and how the market can still use and interpret what bonds are telling us. Plus Roger responds that different opinions make a market, and that's good.
It matters little if you are invested in property, shares or bonds, we have moved into a lower return environment. It's a time for caution in a world where debt and defaults are rising.
This period of ultra low interest rates and government-stimulated economies has created an overly optimistic view of world economic growth, which will have implications for future retirement savings returns.
The European Central Bank was reluctant to embrace a QE strategy following the GFC. But in late 2014 it was introduced to fight deflationary forces and boost growth in the euro-zone. The question is: will it work?
October 2014 marks the end of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy it called ‘quantitative easing’. The Fed’s aim was to create inflation, increase bank lending and depress the US dollar to help exporters. Did it work?
Unemployment and inflation seem to be heading in different directions in Australia and the United States, but the outcomes for interest rates and equity markets might be the same.
A positive view on US growth but some concerns around possible inflation effects and the unwinding of QE. Growth may give a tailwind but it is rarely the most important factor determining market returns.
This time last year, I highlighted 16 ASX stocks that investors could own indefinitely. One year on, I look at whether there should be any changes to the list of stocks as well as which companies are worth buying now.
The ABS recently released figures which are used to determine key superannuation rates and thresholds that will apply from 1 July 2025. This outlines the rates and thresholds that are changing and those that aren’t.
The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.
With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.
With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.
The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today.