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21 April 2025
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Money supply provides an early and good read on whether the cash rate setting is transmitting to accelerating, steady or slowing price pressures. This explores recent data on money supply and what lies ahead for inflation.
If the RBA starts cutting rates, many believe house prices will rebound strongly. Yet, the numbers on affordability suggest prices can’t rise much further without making housing impossibly expensive for most Australians.
It’s likely we’re at or near the end of the rate hiking cycle, which has historically been associated with a peak in yields. This is good news for bonds, which have typically performed strongly in the years following the peak.
Financial commentators seem to have forgotten the leading cause of inflation: growth in the supply of money. Warren Bird explains the link and explores where it suggests inflation is headed.
Australians are paying almost two billion dollars in credit and debit card fees each year and the RBA wil now probe the whole payment system. What changes are needed to ensure the system is fair and transparent?
Market consensus is that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates well ahead of the RBA. The latest data has cast doubt on this, raising the prospect of an earlier RBA cut to prop up a faltering economy.
Former RBA Governor Ian Macfarlane says our economy has held up well given the sharp spike in interest rates. He thinks that economic strength plus high inflation mean rates are more likely to go higher than lower in 2024.
Accounting losses from a pandemic inspired bond buying spree have wiped out the RBA's equity and more, pushing its balance sheet into negative equity territory. How did it happen and what lessons can be learned?
News outlets and RBA watchers use a handy tool from the ASX to gauge market predictions for the RBA cash rate. Yet the tool has an obvious flaw that needs to be fixed to better reflect current monetary policy.
Australia should break away from the dogmatic belief that the RBA must be independent of Government. How can it be, when the RBA is the country's largest single creditor, owning around 40% of government debt?
The RBA Governor says Australia has a productivity problem that threatens to undermine economic growth and lead to sticky inflation. There are good reasons for Philp Lowe's concerns and here's what needs to be done.
Although the headlines focus elsewhere, the major conclusions of the Reserve Bank Review describe the need for a complete overhaul of the culture and structure. The culture club within the Bank will make you cry.
The intergenerational wealth transfer, largely driven by a housing boom, exacerbates economic inequality, stifles productivity, and impedes social mobility. Solutions lie in addressing the housing problem, not taxing wealth.
With an election due by 17 May, we are effectively in campaign mode with the Government announcing numerous spending promises since January and the Coalition often matching them. Here's what the election means for investors.
With fixed term deposit rates declining and bank hybrids being phased out, what are the best options for investors seeking income? This goes through the choices, and the opportunities and risks involved.
The S&P 500's recent correction raises concerns about a bear market. History shows corrections are driven by high rates, unemployment, or global shocks, and that there's reason for optimism for nervous investors today.
The famed investor says the rapid switch from globalisation to trade wars is the biggest upheaval in the investing environment since World War Two. And a new world requires a different investment approach.
Trump's tariffs and China's retaliatory strike have sent the Nasdaq into a bear market with the S&P 500 not far behind. What are the implications for the economy and markets, and what should investors do now?